The Rise of Trump: Candidate Trump’s Use of National Security Advisors, June 2015–November 2016
摘要
Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign was explicitly oriented around concepts of national insecurity. His divisive campaign fused together fundamentally opposed groups under the Republican and MAGA banners. In doing so, he established contradictory expectations about how he would govern: he would both shrink and grow the military, both limit the use of the military and hawkishly expand it, and he would treat Russia like both friend and enemy. Based on Trump’s campaign statements (both formal speeches and interviews, and informal comments including his many tweets), this article reconstructs the personae Trump established in the public eye before his campaign began, considers how these personae contributed to the emergence of several emergent policy positions, and compares these policy positions to the advice of the men who advised him on national security matters. The article argues that Trump learned how to transfer his national security advisors’ symbolic capital to support his campaign without conceding his policy positions to those experts, creating a dynamic of disposable expertise that he would continue to exploit throughout his time in office. In doing so, it presents a novel explanation for the puzzling rise of Trump, arguing that policy incoherence was his strength rather than his weakness. This is significant as it helps explain how Trump managed to be elected (twice), but it is equally significant for what it reveals about how Trump governed in his first administration and how he, and those who emulate him, are likely to govern the future.