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<p>In the U.S., public punitiveness has long shaped criminal justice policy, yet how economic conditions influence these attitudes remains underexplored. This study examines how individual-level economic insecurity, alongside macroeconomic indicators (e.g., GDP, unemployment), shapes punitive sentiment over time. It addresses gaps in prior work by synthesizing disparate theoretical concepts from economic individualism and social animus perspectives, while leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal design, with robust methodology and integrated macro-level data. We analyze General Social Survey repeated cross-sections (1972–2022, <i>n</i> = 38,225), appending period-specific economic and crime data, alongside theoretical and empirical controls using Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort logit regression models. Moderation across specific demographics and cohort-level measures of anxiety were examined, but results suggest stable associations across these factors. Findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how economic forces shape punitive attitudes and inform discussions on broader societal trade-offs between the sustainability of punitive governance and rehabilitative justice policies.</p>

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The Cost of Punitiveness: How Economic Conditions Shape Public Support for Punitive Policy

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月30日

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  • Luke DeZago,
  • Jason Rydberg

摘要

In the U.S., public punitiveness has long shaped criminal justice policy, yet how economic conditions influence these attitudes remains underexplored. This study examines how individual-level economic insecurity, alongside macroeconomic indicators (e.g., GDP, unemployment), shapes punitive sentiment over time. It addresses gaps in prior work by synthesizing disparate theoretical concepts from economic individualism and social animus perspectives, while leveraging a nationally representative longitudinal design, with robust methodology and integrated macro-level data. We analyze General Social Survey repeated cross-sections (1972–2022, n = 38,225), appending period-specific economic and crime data, alongside theoretical and empirical controls using Bayesian hierarchical age-period-cohort logit regression models. Moderation across specific demographics and cohort-level measures of anxiety were examined, but results suggest stable associations across these factors. Findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of how economic forces shape punitive attitudes and inform discussions on broader societal trade-offs between the sustainability of punitive governance and rehabilitative justice policies.