Objectives <p>To develop and validate a simple, office-based screening tool for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in adolescents with obesity using readily available clinical indicators.</p> Methods <p>This cross-sectional study utilized NHANES 2021–2023 data (derivation cohort, <i>n</i> = 100) and 2017–2020 data (temporal validation cohort, <i>n</i> = 149). MASLD was defined as controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) ≥245 dB/m. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).</p> Results <p>A simplified three-variable model incorporating alanine aminotransferase (ALT), triglycerides, and waist circumference demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.809, 95% CI: 0.721–0.897) in derivation and remained robust in validation (AUC 0.725, 95% CI: 0.636–0.814). Inclusion of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) did not significantly improve performance (DeLong <i>P</i> &gt;0.05).</p> Conclusions <p>This validated three-parameter model requires no specialized tests or insulin measurement, providing a practical tool for frontline pediatricians to stratify MASLD risk during routine visits.</p>

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A Simple Clinical Prediction Model for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Adolescents with Obesity

  • Yang Liao,
  • Fei Wang,
  • Ting-Ting Tian,
  • Xiu-Fen Li

摘要

Objectives

To develop and validate a simple, office-based screening tool for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in adolescents with obesity using readily available clinical indicators.

Methods

This cross-sectional study utilized NHANES 2021–2023 data (derivation cohort, n = 100) and 2017–2020 data (temporal validation cohort, n = 149). MASLD was defined as controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) ≥245 dB/m. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

A simplified three-variable model incorporating alanine aminotransferase (ALT), triglycerides, and waist circumference demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC 0.809, 95% CI: 0.721–0.897) in derivation and remained robust in validation (AUC 0.725, 95% CI: 0.636–0.814). Inclusion of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) did not significantly improve performance (DeLong P >0.05).

Conclusions

This validated three-parameter model requires no specialized tests or insulin measurement, providing a practical tool for frontline pediatricians to stratify MASLD risk during routine visits.