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Background <p>Tobacco smoke is a well-established carcinogen associated with malignancies across a broad spectrum of organ sites. This study quantifies the 2024 burden of smoking-related cancer in Catalonia (Spain) by estimating smoking-Attributable Cases under a Bayesian framework (AC<sub>B</sub>).</p> Methods <p>We analyzed regional cancer incidence data from 2010 to 2019 and projected incidence for 2020–2024. The impact of tobacco smoke in 2024 was calculated employing a Bayesian estimate of the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF<sub>B</sub>) integrating four independent estimators, with uncertainty expressed as 95% Credible Intervals (CrI).</p> Results <p>Between 2010 and 2024, the number of tobacco-related cancer cases increased at a higher rate in women (from 6005 to 7167: 1.8%) than in men (from 12,774 to 14,130: 1.1%). In women, the increase in lung cancer cases was the most pronounced, rising 4%, from 830 to 1245 cases per year. In 2024, 8330 cancer cases (19.4% of all diagnoses) were attributable to smoking. In men, PAF<sub>B</sub> and AC<sub>B</sub> were 27.5% (CrI 19.7%–35.9%) and 6685 (CrI 4790–8710), compared to 8.8% (CrI 5.1%–14.7%) and 1645 (CrI 942–2732) in women. Lung cancer accounted for more than 50% of the total AC<sub>B</sub> (4186 cases).</p> Conclusions <p>Under a theoretical scenario of smoking elimination, the lifetime cancer risk would shift from 1 in 2 to 1 in 3 for men, and from 1 in 3 to 1 in 3.4 for women. Ongoing prevention strategies must be supported: (i) advancing smoke- and aerosol-free legislation will protect future generations, and (ii) actively promoting primary care-led cessation programs is required.</p>

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The preventable burden of tobacco-attributable cancer incidence in Catalonia (Spain) in 2024: a Bayesian approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月5日

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  • Ramon Clèries,
  • Joan Martínez,
  • Alberto Ameijide,
  • Jan Trallero,
  • Arantza Sanvicens,
  • Isaac Torres,
  • Marià Carulla,
  • Maria Buxó,
  • Josep Alfons Espinàs,
  • Pere Godoy,
  • Rafael Marcos-Gragera,
  • Jaume Galceran,
  • Josep Maria Borràs

摘要

Background

Tobacco smoke is a well-established carcinogen associated with malignancies across a broad spectrum of organ sites. This study quantifies the 2024 burden of smoking-related cancer in Catalonia (Spain) by estimating smoking-Attributable Cases under a Bayesian framework (ACB).

Methods

We analyzed regional cancer incidence data from 2010 to 2019 and projected incidence for 2020–2024. The impact of tobacco smoke in 2024 was calculated employing a Bayesian estimate of the Population Attributable Fraction (PAFB) integrating four independent estimators, with uncertainty expressed as 95% Credible Intervals (CrI).

Results

Between 2010 and 2024, the number of tobacco-related cancer cases increased at a higher rate in women (from 6005 to 7167: 1.8%) than in men (from 12,774 to 14,130: 1.1%). In women, the increase in lung cancer cases was the most pronounced, rising 4%, from 830 to 1245 cases per year. In 2024, 8330 cancer cases (19.4% of all diagnoses) were attributable to smoking. In men, PAFB and ACB were 27.5% (CrI 19.7%–35.9%) and 6685 (CrI 4790–8710), compared to 8.8% (CrI 5.1%–14.7%) and 1645 (CrI 942–2732) in women. Lung cancer accounted for more than 50% of the total ACB (4186 cases).

Conclusions

Under a theoretical scenario of smoking elimination, the lifetime cancer risk would shift from 1 in 2 to 1 in 3 for men, and from 1 in 3 to 1 in 3.4 for women. Ongoing prevention strategies must be supported: (i) advancing smoke- and aerosol-free legislation will protect future generations, and (ii) actively promoting primary care-led cessation programs is required.