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<p>We develop a spatially explicit age-structured model to study the invasion dynamics of plant species, integrating habitat quality, demographic structure, and seed dispersal. Our approach incorporates continuous age structuring and explicitly derives a habitat-quality-dependent invasion threshold, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {T}_0(q)\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, which determines whether a species can establish (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {T}_0(q)&gt; 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) or extinct (<InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\mathcal {T}_0(q)\le 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>). This threshold encapsulates three fundamental components of biological invasions: (i) biotic factors, (ii) abiotic conditions, and (iii) dispersal capacity. Our model is applied to the invasion of black cherry (Prunus serotina) in France, using empirical data to simulate spatio-temporal invasion dynamics.</p>

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An age-structured model within a spatially explicit landscape: the case study of the black cherry invasion in France

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Arnaud Ducrot,
  • Ousmane Seydi

摘要

We develop a spatially explicit age-structured model to study the invasion dynamics of plant species, integrating habitat quality, demographic structure, and seed dispersal. Our approach incorporates continuous age structuring and explicitly derives a habitat-quality-dependent invasion threshold, \(\mathcal {T}_0(q)\) , which determines whether a species can establish ( \(\mathcal {T}_0(q)> 1\) ) or extinct ( \(\mathcal {T}_0(q)\le 1\) ). This threshold encapsulates three fundamental components of biological invasions: (i) biotic factors, (ii) abiotic conditions, and (iii) dispersal capacity. Our model is applied to the invasion of black cherry (Prunus serotina) in France, using empirical data to simulate spatio-temporal invasion dynamics.