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Background <p>The disease burden of alcoholic liver cancer (ALC) has been changing due to socioeconomic development. An up-to-date evaluation of this change can increase public awareness and facilitate health policy development.</p> Methods <p>The data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. Epidemiological changes of morbidity and mortality in different regions, as well as the differences in gender and age were analyzed. Temporal trends were determined using Joinpoint regression analysis and age–period–cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort.</p> Results <p>Globally, there were 99,543.67 new cases (95% UI 80957.40–120401.87) and 92,227.78 deaths (95% UI 75053.11–112,160.27) in 2021, increased by 158.92% and 141.61%, respectively, compared to 1990. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of the increased morbidity (41.13%) and mortality (54.87%). The global estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of morbidity and mortality exhibited an ascending trend, while differences existed across different regions. The morbidity and mortality rates were higher in males than in females across all age groups. Joinpoint regression analysis showed an increased morbidity and mortality rate. The age effect indicated that the highest risk was observed at 75–79&#xa0;years for morbidity and 80–84&#xa0;years for mortality. The period effect showed an increasing risk, while improving cohort risks for mortality were identified.</p> Conclusion <p>Alcoholic liver cancer has posed an increasing health burden since 1990, particularly affecting male and the elderly population. Effective prevention policies on specific age groups should be formulated to improve this situation.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Epidemiological trends and age–period–cohort analysis of alcoholic liver cancer from 1990 to 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月20日

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  • Jiajia Chen,
  • Runhua Li,
  • Xiaojie Li,
  • Kai Shi,
  • Rui Zeng,
  • Kunpeng Hu,
  • Qingliang Wang

摘要

Background

The disease burden of alcoholic liver cancer (ALC) has been changing due to socioeconomic development. An up-to-date evaluation of this change can increase public awareness and facilitate health policy development.

Methods

The data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. Epidemiological changes of morbidity and mortality in different regions, as well as the differences in gender and age were analyzed. Temporal trends were determined using Joinpoint regression analysis and age–period–cohort analysis was employed to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort.

Results

Globally, there were 99,543.67 new cases (95% UI 80957.40–120401.87) and 92,227.78 deaths (95% UI 75053.11–112,160.27) in 2021, increased by 158.92% and 141.61%, respectively, compared to 1990. Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the primary driver of the increased morbidity (41.13%) and mortality (54.87%). The global estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of morbidity and mortality exhibited an ascending trend, while differences existed across different regions. The morbidity and mortality rates were higher in males than in females across all age groups. Joinpoint regression analysis showed an increased morbidity and mortality rate. The age effect indicated that the highest risk was observed at 75–79 years for morbidity and 80–84 years for mortality. The period effect showed an increasing risk, while improving cohort risks for mortality were identified.

Conclusion

Alcoholic liver cancer has posed an increasing health burden since 1990, particularly affecting male and the elderly population. Effective prevention policies on specific age groups should be formulated to improve this situation.

Graphical abstract