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<p>As China enters a stage of rapid population aging, the “aging constraint” is gradually becoming more pronounced, weakening the momentum of consumption expansion. Against this backdrop, how to promote household consumption upgrading by unlocking the “silver dividend” has become a key issue for sustaining the domestic economic cycle. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2020, this paper innovatively distinguishes medical expenditure from health-care expenditure on the basis of the traditional threefold consumption classification. Medical spending is reclassified as survival consumption, while health-care spending is retained as enjoyment consumption. This adjustment avoids overestimating higher-level consumption and better reflects the consumption realities of an aging society. Based on this refined classification, from a micro household perspective, the study empirically examines the constraining effect of population aging on consumption upgrading and its micro-mechanisms, and further explores the potential substitution effect of the “ silver dividend”. The results show the following: (1) The increase in the proportion of elderly people within the household significantly suppresses the upgrading of household consumption structure, consumption quality, and consumption patterns. (2) Mechanism analysis indicates that declining income and rising household economic risks are the main channels through which Aging of the household age structure inhibits consumption upgrading. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of the increase in the proportion of elderly people within the household on consumption upgrading is insignificant among rural and low-income households, whose consumption mainly remains at the basic survival level; in contrast, aging significantly suppresses consumption upgrading among urban and high-income households. (4) Extended analysis suggests that improvements in the health status of older adults and the enhancement of social security systems can better unleash the silver dividend and alleviate the constraints of population aging on consumption upgrading. The findings provide empirical support for policy discussions on how to tap into the potential of the older adults and foster new drivers of consumption growth in an aging society.</p>

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From “Aging Constraint” to “Silver Dividend”: The Logic of Consumption Upgrading under Population Aging

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月25日

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  • Xiaoling Xue,
  • Yunfei Hao,
  • Mingyue Song

摘要

As China enters a stage of rapid population aging, the “aging constraint” is gradually becoming more pronounced, weakening the momentum of consumption expansion. Against this backdrop, how to promote household consumption upgrading by unlocking the “silver dividend” has become a key issue for sustaining the domestic economic cycle. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2014 to 2020, this paper innovatively distinguishes medical expenditure from health-care expenditure on the basis of the traditional threefold consumption classification. Medical spending is reclassified as survival consumption, while health-care spending is retained as enjoyment consumption. This adjustment avoids overestimating higher-level consumption and better reflects the consumption realities of an aging society. Based on this refined classification, from a micro household perspective, the study empirically examines the constraining effect of population aging on consumption upgrading and its micro-mechanisms, and further explores the potential substitution effect of the “ silver dividend”. The results show the following: (1) The increase in the proportion of elderly people within the household significantly suppresses the upgrading of household consumption structure, consumption quality, and consumption patterns. (2) Mechanism analysis indicates that declining income and rising household economic risks are the main channels through which Aging of the household age structure inhibits consumption upgrading. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of the increase in the proportion of elderly people within the household on consumption upgrading is insignificant among rural and low-income households, whose consumption mainly remains at the basic survival level; in contrast, aging significantly suppresses consumption upgrading among urban and high-income households. (4) Extended analysis suggests that improvements in the health status of older adults and the enhancement of social security systems can better unleash the silver dividend and alleviate the constraints of population aging on consumption upgrading. The findings provide empirical support for policy discussions on how to tap into the potential of the older adults and foster new drivers of consumption growth in an aging society.