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<p>Many demographers argue that the existing fixed old-age threshold is outdated and tends to overestimate population ageing, advocating for a dynamic prospective old-age threshold (POAT). However, the variability of POAT poses challenges in accurately measuring population ageing and developing sustainable ageing policies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a new adjusted fixed old-age threshold (adjusted FOAT) tailored for China and its Special Administrative Regions (SARs). Using life table statistics, the study calculates both POAT and the new adjusted FOAT. It then applies age-specific population data from the <i>World Population Prospects 2022</i> (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations) to assess population ageing indicators. Between 2001 and 2025, the study establishes new adjusted FOAT benchmarks: 68 years for China, 73 years for Hong Kong and Macau, and 71 years for Taiwan. China and its SARs show a three-year increase every 25 years, while Taiwan follows a slightly different pattern—rising by three years in the first three 25-year periods but by only two years in the final 25 years of the 21st century. A comparative analysis of the adjusted FOAT and POAT reveals no statistically significant differences in population ageing indicators, confirming the reliability of the adjusted FOAT in assessing the ageing burden. This study equips policymakers and demographers with a comprehensive and adaptable tool for addressing population ageing challenges, contributing to the development of long-term, sustainable age-related policies in China and its SARs, including Taiwan.</p>

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Towards Quantifying Population Ageing: Introducing a New Fixed Old-Age Threshold for China and its Particular Three Special Administrative Regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月18日

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  • Md. Shamim Hossen,
  • Md. Nuruzzaman Haque

摘要

Many demographers argue that the existing fixed old-age threshold is outdated and tends to overestimate population ageing, advocating for a dynamic prospective old-age threshold (POAT). However, the variability of POAT poses challenges in accurately measuring population ageing and developing sustainable ageing policies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a new adjusted fixed old-age threshold (adjusted FOAT) tailored for China and its Special Administrative Regions (SARs). Using life table statistics, the study calculates both POAT and the new adjusted FOAT. It then applies age-specific population data from the World Population Prospects 2022 (Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations) to assess population ageing indicators. Between 2001 and 2025, the study establishes new adjusted FOAT benchmarks: 68 years for China, 73 years for Hong Kong and Macau, and 71 years for Taiwan. China and its SARs show a three-year increase every 25 years, while Taiwan follows a slightly different pattern—rising by three years in the first three 25-year periods but by only two years in the final 25 years of the 21st century. A comparative analysis of the adjusted FOAT and POAT reveals no statistically significant differences in population ageing indicators, confirming the reliability of the adjusted FOAT in assessing the ageing burden. This study equips policymakers and demographers with a comprehensive and adaptable tool for addressing population ageing challenges, contributing to the development of long-term, sustainable age-related policies in China and its SARs, including Taiwan.