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<p>The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reshaped global economic cooperation, yet its implications for national digital governance remain unclear. This study examines whether participation in the BRI improves digital governance capacity, as measured by the E-Government Development Index (EGDI), using a panel of 193 countries from 2003 to 2024. Exploiting the staggered rollout of BRI participation, we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate its effect on digital governance. The study finds that BRI participation significantly improves EGDI, with gains concentrated in telecommunications infrastructure rather than across all dimensions of digital governance. Mechanism analyses suggest that financial institutional development and industrial structural transformation act as transmission channels, jointly accounting for approximately 21% of the estimated effect. Heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects among early participants, upper-middle- and high-income economies, and geographically proximate countries, highlighting the role of absorptive capacity. Additionally, spatial analyses indicate that governance improvements are associated with peer policy diffusion rather than geographic spillovers. These findings contribute to research on international development cooperation by demonstrating how infrastructure-based initiatives can support the transformation of digital governance and inform inclusive development strategies.</p>

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Digital Governance Gains from the Belt and Road Initiative: The Roles of Financial Institutions and Structural Transformation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Shuangyan Li,
  • Saif Ullah,
  • Muhammad Waleed Younas

摘要

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reshaped global economic cooperation, yet its implications for national digital governance remain unclear. This study examines whether participation in the BRI improves digital governance capacity, as measured by the E-Government Development Index (EGDI), using a panel of 193 countries from 2003 to 2024. Exploiting the staggered rollout of BRI participation, we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) framework to estimate its effect on digital governance. The study finds that BRI participation significantly improves EGDI, with gains concentrated in telecommunications infrastructure rather than across all dimensions of digital governance. Mechanism analyses suggest that financial institutional development and industrial structural transformation act as transmission channels, jointly accounting for approximately 21% of the estimated effect. Heterogeneity analyses reveal stronger effects among early participants, upper-middle- and high-income economies, and geographically proximate countries, highlighting the role of absorptive capacity. Additionally, spatial analyses indicate that governance improvements are associated with peer policy diffusion rather than geographic spillovers. These findings contribute to research on international development cooperation by demonstrating how infrastructure-based initiatives can support the transformation of digital governance and inform inclusive development strategies.