<p>This paper takes the 47 counties in the Dabie Mountains Old Revolutionary Base Area (DMORA)as the research units, constructs an evaluation index system for residents’ well-being levels from three dimensions (material and income, safety and health, and sociocultural dimensions) and employs methods, such as entropy weighting and geographically weighted random forest(GWRF) models, to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of residents’ well-being levels from 2006 to 2021. This study also predicts future trends in residents’ well-being levels. Several results are obtained. (1) During the research period, the annual average growth rate of regional residents' well-being was 5.62%. However, there was a spatial differentiation with a relative decline in the southeast and a gradual increase in the northwest. (2) Permanent resident population, per capita public fiscal expenditure, and the number of industrial enterprises above the designated size are clearly important factors, and there is significant spatial heterogeneity. At the local scale, per capita public fiscal expenditure is the dominant factor, followed by urbanization rate and investment ratio and the first and second industry growth ratio. (3) The prediction results indicate that the overall well-being level of resident in the DMORA will continue to grow from 2022 to 2031, but there will be significant differences between counties, necessitating differentiated policy implementation.</p>