Temporary and Persistent Travel Mode Shifts Under External Disruption
摘要
This study investigates how a major public health crisis reshapes urban travel behavior, focusing on two questions: which groups exhibit long-term versus short-term shifts in travel modes, and what factors drive these shifts or the decision to maintain previous modes. It also explores how remote work adopted during the crisis may influence future travel choices. Using retrospective travel behavior data from Shanghai across pre-crisis, acute, and normalized phases, the results show that users of private cars and non-motorized modes are more resilient, exhibiting a much lower propensity to shift away from their pre-crisis modes. In contrast, public transport users, particularly regular bus commuters, are more likely to experience persistent changes. Key determinants of these shifts include socio-economic characteristics, household composition, pre-crisis car ownership, and commute distance. The analysis further shows that the number of days working from home during the normalized phase significantly increases future willingness to work remotely, which in turn affects expected travel behavior. By explicitly distinguishing short-term adaptations from long-term behavioral change within the same cohort, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of how major public health crises can alter the co-evolution of human activity and the urban transport system, and provides evidence to support resilient, family-friendly, and multimodal transport policies.