<p>The intense shock of urbanization has pushed traditional villages into a widespread survival crisis, yet its internal mechanisms remain a ‘black box’ to be decoded. Based on a sample of 96 traditional villages in Guangzhou, this study innovatively disaggregates built heritage into two core representations: legally protected landmark buildings and the vernacular fabric that constitutes the overall landscape. It employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to quantify the differentiated impact pathways of multiple urbanization shocks on these two components. The research reveals a profound ‘heritage survival paradox’: superior location and economic conditions, the key drivers of urbanization exert the strongest negative impacts on the vernacular fabric (standardized path coefficients β = -0.420 and β = -0.276, respectively). However, these very same factors significantly promote the protection and development of landmark buildings (β = +0.342 and β = +0.324, respectively). This paradox is further corroborated by the impact of demographic shifts: population growth also significantly damages the vernacular fabric (β = -0.194), while having no significant effect on the survival of landmark buildings, revealing their ‘immunity’ to demographic pressure. This study is the first to quantitatively confirm that urbanization plays a ‘selective shaping’ role on built heritage—a process that destroys the whole while catalyzing the individual. The contribution of this research extends beyond mechanistic decoding, providing a quantifiable risk diagnosis framework that offers a scientific basis for shifting from generalized policies to precise, evidence-based conservation strategies.</p>