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<p>This paper applies a Potts model to segment the demand of local housing markets in New South Wales, Australia, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation approach. This approach models both endogenous spatial dependence and heterogeneity. The results identify 10 distinct market segments where housing demand responds similarly to income changes, revealing regional disparities through spatial patterns. Metropolitan Sydney and coastal regions exhibit the highest income elasticity (0.57-0.6), indicating strong demand, while inland areas show moderate responses (0.51-0.53), and remote regions the lowest, often below 0.5. These findings highlight spatial inequality in housing market performance, with implications for place-based policies such as affordable housing initiatives and regional investment to promote more equitable outcomes across NSW.</p>

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Income Elasticity and Housing Demand Segmentation in New South Wales Australia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月18日

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  • Xiangling Liu,
  • Wanchuang Zhu

摘要

This paper applies a Potts model to segment the demand of local housing markets in New South Wales, Australia, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation approach. This approach models both endogenous spatial dependence and heterogeneity. The results identify 10 distinct market segments where housing demand responds similarly to income changes, revealing regional disparities through spatial patterns. Metropolitan Sydney and coastal regions exhibit the highest income elasticity (0.57-0.6), indicating strong demand, while inland areas show moderate responses (0.51-0.53), and remote regions the lowest, often below 0.5. These findings highlight spatial inequality in housing market performance, with implications for place-based policies such as affordable housing initiatives and regional investment to promote more equitable outcomes across NSW.