<p>Residential building energy consumption is a complex interplay of geography, architecture, and human behavior. However, current models fail to adequately integrate these factors, leading to generic strategies that lack regional specificity. This study introduces a physics-based End-Use Energy Predictive Model (EUE-PM) that explicitly quantifies the sensitivity of energy use to regional climate conditions, main facade orientation, and HVAC operational behaviors. The scenario-based comparative simulation addresses these factors across diverse climates and represents a significant advancement over previous approaches. We developed a database of climatic conditions and building archetypes to simulate 80 energy models across 40 cities in Japan and Vietnam, spanning a wide range of latitudes and climate zones. Our analysis reveals two key findings. First, sensitivity to building orientation is highly latitude-dependent, with high-latitude Japanese cities showing up to 16% energy savings from south-facing bedrooms, whereas this factor was less critical in tropical Vietnam. Second, modulating occupant behavior within thermal comfort bounds presented the highest energy-saving potential (up to 50%) in Vietnam, whereas Japanese energy use was highly sensitive to the orientation of localized architectural archetypes. The EUE-PM successfully defined the influence of each factor, providing a clear hierarchy for intervention. The proposed EUE-PM moves beyond mere prediction to offer a sensitivity-driven decision-making tool. It enables the development of tailored, region-specific energy conservation guidelines, which is a crucial step toward achieving sustainable development goals in the built environment of Asia and other climatically diverse regions.</p>

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Scenario-based sensitivity analysis for tailoring regional energy-saving strategies in residential buildings: a comparative study of Japan and Vietnam

  • Le Na Tran,
  • Weijun Gao,
  • Huong Thanh Hoang

摘要

Residential building energy consumption is a complex interplay of geography, architecture, and human behavior. However, current models fail to adequately integrate these factors, leading to generic strategies that lack regional specificity. This study introduces a physics-based End-Use Energy Predictive Model (EUE-PM) that explicitly quantifies the sensitivity of energy use to regional climate conditions, main facade orientation, and HVAC operational behaviors. The scenario-based comparative simulation addresses these factors across diverse climates and represents a significant advancement over previous approaches. We developed a database of climatic conditions and building archetypes to simulate 80 energy models across 40 cities in Japan and Vietnam, spanning a wide range of latitudes and climate zones. Our analysis reveals two key findings. First, sensitivity to building orientation is highly latitude-dependent, with high-latitude Japanese cities showing up to 16% energy savings from south-facing bedrooms, whereas this factor was less critical in tropical Vietnam. Second, modulating occupant behavior within thermal comfort bounds presented the highest energy-saving potential (up to 50%) in Vietnam, whereas Japanese energy use was highly sensitive to the orientation of localized architectural archetypes. The EUE-PM successfully defined the influence of each factor, providing a clear hierarchy for intervention. The proposed EUE-PM moves beyond mere prediction to offer a sensitivity-driven decision-making tool. It enables the development of tailored, region-specific energy conservation guidelines, which is a crucial step toward achieving sustainable development goals in the built environment of Asia and other climatically diverse regions.