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<p>To effectively study the reliability degradation of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns during their service life, the present article proposes a time-dependent reliability analysis method for corroded circular CFST columns based on the Gamma process. Firstly, corrosion depth models for steel under different atmospheric conditions were established based on the Gamma process. Subsequently, a model for predicting the ultimate axial bearing capacity of corroded concrete-filled steel tubular columns was established by introducing a correction factor <i>K</i><sub><i>r</i></sub>. Finally, the time-dependent reliability indices of CFST columns under varying corrosion environments were computed using the Monte Carlo method, integrating the established corrosion depth models and ultimate capacity prediction framework. The results demonstrate significant spatial disparities in failure probability growth and reliability index degradation. Qingdao exhibits the most severe performance degradation, with an annual failure probability growth rate 4.52 times that of Beijing and a reliability index decay rate 2.6 times faster. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating geographical corrosion variations into lifecycle management frameworks for CFST structures, providing methodological references for time-dependent reliability analysis of circular CFST columns.</p>

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Time-dependent reliability analysis of corroded circular concrete-filled steel tubular column based on Gamma process

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月27日

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  • Zhenhao Zhang,
  • Zhe Zeng,
  • Tao Chen,
  • Jun Xiong

摘要

To effectively study the reliability degradation of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) columns during their service life, the present article proposes a time-dependent reliability analysis method for corroded circular CFST columns based on the Gamma process. Firstly, corrosion depth models for steel under different atmospheric conditions were established based on the Gamma process. Subsequently, a model for predicting the ultimate axial bearing capacity of corroded concrete-filled steel tubular columns was established by introducing a correction factor Kr. Finally, the time-dependent reliability indices of CFST columns under varying corrosion environments were computed using the Monte Carlo method, integrating the established corrosion depth models and ultimate capacity prediction framework. The results demonstrate significant spatial disparities in failure probability growth and reliability index degradation. Qingdao exhibits the most severe performance degradation, with an annual failure probability growth rate 4.52 times that of Beijing and a reliability index decay rate 2.6 times faster. These findings highlight the critical importance of incorporating geographical corrosion variations into lifecycle management frameworks for CFST structures, providing methodological references for time-dependent reliability analysis of circular CFST columns.