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Abstract <p>Sustainable water resource planning necessitates understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. This study investigates water availability for paddy (<i>Oryza sativa</i>) and maize (<i>Zea mays</i>) under climate change in the upper Indo-Gangetic floodplain of India. Future monthly projections of climate variables are downscaled using SVR and disaggregated to daily inputs for a root water uptake (RWU) model. The RWU model simulates irrigation water requirement (IWR) and relative crop yield (<i>Y</i><sub><i>r</i></sub>) using root-zone soil moisture dynamics. The study utilizes coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP-6) projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) and five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project IWR and <i>Y</i><sub><i>r</i></sub> for near (2015–2043), mid (2044–2071), and far (2072–2099) futures. For paddy, potential evapotranspiration (PET) trends are insignificant and mean seasonal rainfall (MSR) has Sen’s slope of 0.54, 2.11 (99% confidence), and 2.42 (99% confidence) for the near, mid, and far future, respectively. The same is observed in the case of maize, for which Sen’s slope of MSR in SSP5-8.5 for near, mid, and far time periods are 0.44, 1.94, and 2.00 within 95%, 99%, and 99% confidence bands, respectively. The PET for the same scenarios showed positive but insignificant trends in the Mann-Kendall test. Results indicate a concerning trend in the near term, with increased IWR and decreased <i>Y</i><sub><i>r</i></sub> (–20%) under SSP5-8.5 for both the crops. However, in the far future, the opposite trend has been observed.</p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>A multi-model analysis of climatic predictands (precipitation and temperature) for future crop water availability in the light of CMIP6 data.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Prediction of relative crop yield and water deficit using crop growth model, which is based on actual root-water-uptake information.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>The results highlight for short and medium-term periods, the adaptation to the changing climate would be preferred by growing maize over paddy.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Assessing the short, medium, and long-term impacts of climate change on crop water availability of maize and paddy

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Aamir Bashir,
  • Ickkshaanshu Sonkar,
  • Sagar Rohidas Chavan

摘要

Abstract

Sustainable water resource planning necessitates understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. This study investigates water availability for paddy (Oryza sativa) and maize (Zea mays) under climate change in the upper Indo-Gangetic floodplain of India. Future monthly projections of climate variables are downscaled using SVR and disaggregated to daily inputs for a root water uptake (RWU) model. The RWU model simulates irrigation water requirement (IWR) and relative crop yield (Yr) using root-zone soil moisture dynamics. The study utilizes coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP-6) projections from four general circulation models (GCMs) and five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project IWR and Yr for near (2015–2043), mid (2044–2071), and far (2072–2099) futures. For paddy, potential evapotranspiration (PET) trends are insignificant and mean seasonal rainfall (MSR) has Sen’s slope of 0.54, 2.11 (99% confidence), and 2.42 (99% confidence) for the near, mid, and far future, respectively. The same is observed in the case of maize, for which Sen’s slope of MSR in SSP5-8.5 for near, mid, and far time periods are 0.44, 1.94, and 2.00 within 95%, 99%, and 99% confidence bands, respectively. The PET for the same scenarios showed positive but insignificant trends in the Mann-Kendall test. Results indicate a concerning trend in the near term, with increased IWR and decreased Yr (–20%) under SSP5-8.5 for both the crops. However, in the far future, the opposite trend has been observed.

Research highlights

A multi-model analysis of climatic predictands (precipitation and temperature) for future crop water availability in the light of CMIP6 data.

Prediction of relative crop yield and water deficit using crop growth model, which is based on actual root-water-uptake information.

The results highlight for short and medium-term periods, the adaptation to the changing climate would be preferred by growing maize over paddy.