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Abstract <p>Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is a quantitative framework that estimates the likelihood of varying levels of ground shaking at a site by considering the unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, magnitude, and ground motion. Despite its significance, the seismic hazard research lacks region-specific studies. This study aims to develop a high-resolution, PSHA model tailored to the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), considering the diverse tectonic settings. A custom Python-based PSHA engine was developed to compute hazard curves for a uniformly spaced grid (0.1° × 0.1°) across the state. The analysis produced hazard maps in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA) at 0.1, 0.2, and 1.0&#xa0;s periods, for 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results showed that the northwestern region near the Uttarakhand border has the highest seismic hazard, with PGA values reaching up to 0.30 g for the 2% exceedance scenario. A clear attenuation trend was observed from northwest to southeast, consistent with a decrease in tectonic activity and an increase in distance from the Himalayan thrust systems. Hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra (UHS) were also derived for selected cities to compare the results with the past studies. The study's findings provide critical input for seismic design, disaster risk mitigation, and urban planning in the UP.</p> Research highlights <p><UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> <p>A high-resolution PSHA was conducted for Uttar Pradesh using a unified earthquake catalogue and logic-tree framework.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Hazard levels are highest in the northwestern region near the Uttarakhand border due to proximity to active Himalayan thrusts.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>Seismic hazard attenuates from northwest to southeast, reflecting decreasing tectonic influence and increasing distance from Himalayan sources.</p> </ItemContent> <ItemContent> <p>The results provide region-specific hazard metrics for seismic design, disaster planning, and microzonation.</p> </ItemContent> </UnorderedList></p>

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Uttar Pradesh: A comprehensive regional study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Ajesh Sankar,
  • Abhishek Baboo,
  • Sreevalsa Kolathayar

摘要

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is a quantitative framework that estimates the likelihood of varying levels of ground shaking at a site by considering the unpredictability in earthquake occurrence, magnitude, and ground motion. Despite its significance, the seismic hazard research lacks region-specific studies. This study aims to develop a high-resolution, PSHA model tailored to the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), considering the diverse tectonic settings. A custom Python-based PSHA engine was developed to compute hazard curves for a uniformly spaced grid (0.1° × 0.1°) across the state. The analysis produced hazard maps in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA) at 0.1, 0.2, and 1.0 s periods, for 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results showed that the northwestern region near the Uttarakhand border has the highest seismic hazard, with PGA values reaching up to 0.30 g for the 2% exceedance scenario. A clear attenuation trend was observed from northwest to southeast, consistent with a decrease in tectonic activity and an increase in distance from the Himalayan thrust systems. Hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra (UHS) were also derived for selected cities to compare the results with the past studies. The study's findings provide critical input for seismic design, disaster risk mitigation, and urban planning in the UP.

Research highlights

A high-resolution PSHA was conducted for Uttar Pradesh using a unified earthquake catalogue and logic-tree framework.

Hazard levels are highest in the northwestern region near the Uttarakhand border due to proximity to active Himalayan thrusts.

Seismic hazard attenuates from northwest to southeast, reflecting decreasing tectonic influence and increasing distance from Himalayan sources.

The results provide region-specific hazard metrics for seismic design, disaster planning, and microzonation.