Abstract This study explores the climatology of thunderstorm over northwest India by analyzing the climate variability of the thunderstorm days, trend projections by utilizing Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods followed by significant t-test analysis for five stability indices, namely lifted index (LI), K-index (KI), Showalter index (SI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition (CIN) along with the correlation metrics during thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. Climate variability analysis is performed for 30 synoptic stations, and trend analysis is performed for 20 cities of northwest India. Lucknow and Delhi depicted the most thunderstorm days over northwest India during the past five decades. There was no discernible long-term trend in the yearly thunderstorm frequency analysis conducted throughout northwest India between 1970 and 2020, suggesting that there has not been a consistent rise or fall in the number of thunderstorm days during the last 50 years. To perform the stability index analysis, Patiala, Delhi and Lucknow are chosen as representative stations. During thunderstorm days at 00Z, CIN exhibited maximum correlation among stability indices (CAPE, KI, LI, and SI), whereas Lifted Index exhibited highest correlation among stability indices at 12Z. Lucknow exhibited strong correlation to stability indices at 00Z and Delhi exhibited strong correlation at 12Z. Research highlights <UnorderedList Mark="Bullet"> <ItemContent> Delhi and Lucknow experienced the maximum number of thunderstorm days in northwest India during the last five decades. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> The Mann–Kendall trend analysis depicted no discernible trend signatures over northwest India during the study period. Further research into non-linear and multi-factorial influences on thunderstorm days is crucial, implying diverse and intricate atmospheric environmental elements favoring thunderstorms over the region. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> During thunderstorm days at 00Z, CIN exhibited maximum correlation among the stability indices (CAPE, KI, SI, LI) and Lifted Index exhibited maximum correlation at 12Z. </ItemContent> <ItemContent> Lucknow exhibited strong correlation to stability indices at 00Z and Delhi exhibited strong correlation to stability indices 12Z. </ItemContent> </UnorderedList>

Investigating the change in frequency and amplitude of thunderstorm events over northwest India during the last five decades

期刊论文
发表日期：

2026年1月7日

查看全文

Shibin Balakrishnan,
Manju Mohan,
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

摘要

Abstract

This study explores the climatology of thunderstorm over northwest India by analyzing the climate variability of the thunderstorm days, trend projections by utilizing Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope methods followed by significant t-test analysis for five stability indices, namely lifted index (LI), K-index (KI), Showalter index (SI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition (CIN) along with the correlation metrics during thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm days. Climate variability analysis is performed for 30 synoptic stations, and trend analysis is performed for 20 cities of northwest India. Lucknow and Delhi depicted the most thunderstorm days over northwest India during the past five decades. There was no discernible long-term trend in the yearly thunderstorm frequency analysis conducted throughout northwest India between 1970 and 2020, suggesting that there has not been a consistent rise or fall in the number of thunderstorm days during the last 50 years. To perform the stability index analysis, Patiala, Delhi and Lucknow are chosen as representative stations. During thunderstorm days at 00Z, CIN exhibited maximum correlation among stability indices (CAPE, KI, LI, and SI), whereas Lifted Index exhibited highest correlation among stability indices at 12Z. Lucknow exhibited strong correlation to stability indices at 00Z and Delhi exhibited strong correlation at 12Z.

Research highlights

Delhi and Lucknow experienced the maximum number of thunderstorm days in northwest India during the last five decades.

The Mann–Kendall trend analysis depicted no discernible trend signatures over northwest India during the study period. Further research into non-linear and multi-factorial influences on thunderstorm days is crucial, implying diverse and intricate atmospheric environmental elements favoring thunderstorms over the region.

During thunderstorm days at 00Z, CIN exhibited maximum correlation among the stability indices (CAPE, KI, SI, LI) and Lifted Index exhibited maximum correlation at 12Z.

Lucknow exhibited strong correlation to stability indices at 00Z and Delhi exhibited strong correlation to stability indices 12Z.