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<p>The swift withdrawal of glaciers as a result of climate change is one of the major drivers of surging global sea levels, affecting coastal ecosystems and vulnerable populations. Building upon satellite data, climate models and socio-economic analysis, this study contributes to the prediction of glacier mass loss, sea level rise and potential socio-economic implications. The models were on average 92% accurate in predicting which glaciers would lose mass and predicted that by 2050, the average world sea level would be an average of 0.3 m higher than today. It also forecasts major disruptions to coastal ecosystems, including the loss of more than 30% of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia and 25% of coastal wetlands by 2050. Examples of socio-economic impact are a 20% reduction in glacier meltwater availability in the Himalayas, threatening water security to millions, and risks of displacement in areas like Bangladesh and the Maldives. The economic toll of those impacts could total over $1 trillion per year worldwide by 2100. The study highlights the importance of integrated modelling to evaluate the multidimensional impact of glacier retreat, as such work provides vital information on the joint environmental and socio-economic risks that climate change presents.</p>

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RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessing the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on sea level rise, coastal ecosystems, and vulnerable communities

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月27日

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  • Anil Kumar Pallikonda,
  • Eswar Patnala,
  • Jagadeeswara Rao Annam,
  • Shobana Gorintla,
  • V. V. Rama Krishna,
  • Aruna Vipparla

摘要

The swift withdrawal of glaciers as a result of climate change is one of the major drivers of surging global sea levels, affecting coastal ecosystems and vulnerable populations. Building upon satellite data, climate models and socio-economic analysis, this study contributes to the prediction of glacier mass loss, sea level rise and potential socio-economic implications. The models were on average 92% accurate in predicting which glaciers would lose mass and predicted that by 2050, the average world sea level would be an average of 0.3 m higher than today. It also forecasts major disruptions to coastal ecosystems, including the loss of more than 30% of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia and 25% of coastal wetlands by 2050. Examples of socio-economic impact are a 20% reduction in glacier meltwater availability in the Himalayas, threatening water security to millions, and risks of displacement in areas like Bangladesh and the Maldives. The economic toll of those impacts could total over $1 trillion per year worldwide by 2100. The study highlights the importance of integrated modelling to evaluate the multidimensional impact of glacier retreat, as such work provides vital information on the joint environmental and socio-economic risks that climate change presents.