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<p>For sustainable land and resources management, the detection and prediction of land use and land cover change is very important. These changes may be attributed to several reasons, namely population pressure, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and changing climate. In Kerala, the southernmost state of India, the land use and land cover have changed considerably over the years. This study examines the changes that have happened in the land use and land cover of Kerala over the years and also predicts the future land use land cover scenarios with emphasis on its influence on the urban heat island effect. The land use and land cover maps were predicted by considering the available decadal land use maps as a reference using the CA-Markov analysis module in the land change modeler. Land use maps of 2001 and 2015 derived from Landsat images were also employed in this study for reference. The changes that would occur by 2030 are analyzed, and corresponding change matrices are also prepared to know the changes that might happen between land cover classes. From the analysis, it was found that Kerala is dominated by the land use class of plantation followed by the land cover class of forest. Over the years 1985 to 2005, the land use land cover map shows a maximum increase in the plantation and built-up, and there is a maximum decrease in the forest. The predicted land use land cover map for the year 2030 also indicates the same trend of increasing plantation and built-up areas and a decreasing trend in forests. Significant areas of land changed from forest to plantation and plantation to built-up, which may be attributed to an increase in urbanization and the economic development that took place over the years. Considerable forests in the Western Ghats regions of Kerala have been converted to plantations over the years, which may be due to the fact that plantations may have an impact on Kerala’s economic development owing to its export potential and employment generation. These changes have also affected the land surface temperature, which leads to urban heat islands. The results and conclusions obtained from this study can be very useful for planning and execution of better land resource management.</p>

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Land use land cover change detection and prediction using land change modeler – A case study of Kerala

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月23日

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  • R Akhila,
  • S K Pramada

摘要

For sustainable land and resources management, the detection and prediction of land use and land cover change is very important. These changes may be attributed to several reasons, namely population pressure, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and changing climate. In Kerala, the southernmost state of India, the land use and land cover have changed considerably over the years. This study examines the changes that have happened in the land use and land cover of Kerala over the years and also predicts the future land use land cover scenarios with emphasis on its influence on the urban heat island effect. The land use and land cover maps were predicted by considering the available decadal land use maps as a reference using the CA-Markov analysis module in the land change modeler. Land use maps of 2001 and 2015 derived from Landsat images were also employed in this study for reference. The changes that would occur by 2030 are analyzed, and corresponding change matrices are also prepared to know the changes that might happen between land cover classes. From the analysis, it was found that Kerala is dominated by the land use class of plantation followed by the land cover class of forest. Over the years 1985 to 2005, the land use land cover map shows a maximum increase in the plantation and built-up, and there is a maximum decrease in the forest. The predicted land use land cover map for the year 2030 also indicates the same trend of increasing plantation and built-up areas and a decreasing trend in forests. Significant areas of land changed from forest to plantation and plantation to built-up, which may be attributed to an increase in urbanization and the economic development that took place over the years. Considerable forests in the Western Ghats regions of Kerala have been converted to plantations over the years, which may be due to the fact that plantations may have an impact on Kerala’s economic development owing to its export potential and employment generation. These changes have also affected the land surface temperature, which leads to urban heat islands. The results and conclusions obtained from this study can be very useful for planning and execution of better land resource management.