Abstract The predicting of lightning activity using Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the electrification (ELEC) module, known as the WRF-ELEC model, has been used in this study to simulate lightning flashes over different regions of the Indian subcontinent. The state-of-the-art model is specially developed focusing on the generation of atmospheric lightning activities. IITM-LLN is the observation data used to compare qualitatively and quantitatively with the simulated results for three unique severe thunderstorm events in 2022 (April 10, May 10, and June 13). These events were chosen based on the availability of LLN data, GPM satellite overpasses, and their diverse locations within the subcontinent. The WRF-ELEC model demonstrates impressive accuracy in capturing the initiation and spatial distribution of lightning from these thunderstorm systems, with minimal lag and error. Forecasts show reasonable skill for up to ~15 hrs, though accuracy diminishes with longer lead times. Notably, the model successfully reproduces the diurnal cycle of lightning activity, including the prominent peak observed in typical thunderstorms. However, its performance in capturing the diurnal cycle for complex thunderstorms is reduced under conditions with pre-existing atmospheric instability or complex terrain. Also, for such systems, the peak is also captured by a model with a lead of one hour. Overall, this study assesses lightning forecasting using the state-of-the-art WRF-ELEC model and LLN observation over India and adjoining regions under different meteorological conditions and varied topographical regions. Research highlights <OrderedList> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>1.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> The WRF-ELEC efficiently simulates the lightning flashes with no spatial shift and no time lag of initiation, but an overestimation in the flash count is observed. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>2.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> ERA5 is the most appropriate source for the IBC for WRF-ELEC for simulating accurate lightning flashes. </ItemContent> </ListItem> <ListItem> <ItemNumber>3.</ItemNumber> <ItemContent> WRF-ELEC has room for improvement in simulating precise lightning time for extreme events viz. Dima Hasao heavy rainfall event, May 2022. </ItemContent> </ListItem> </OrderedList>

WRF-ELEC lightning validation with IITM-LLN: Performance across the Indian subcontinent

期刊论文
发表日期：

2025年3月25日

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B Abida Choudhury,
Himadri Baisya,
S D Pawar

摘要

Abstract

The predicting of lightning activity using Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with the electrification (ELEC) module, known as the WRF-ELEC model, has been used in this study to simulate lightning flashes over different regions of the Indian subcontinent. The state-of-the-art model is specially developed focusing on the generation of atmospheric lightning activities. IITM-LLN is the observation data used to compare qualitatively and quantitatively with the simulated results for three unique severe thunderstorm events in 2022 (April 10, May 10, and June 13). These events were chosen based on the availability of LLN data, GPM satellite overpasses, and their diverse locations within the subcontinent. The WRF-ELEC model demonstrates impressive accuracy in capturing the initiation and spatial distribution of lightning from these thunderstorm systems, with minimal lag and error. Forecasts show reasonable skill for up to ~15 hrs, though accuracy diminishes with longer lead times. Notably, the model successfully reproduces the diurnal cycle of lightning activity, including the prominent peak observed in typical thunderstorms. However, its performance in capturing the diurnal cycle for complex thunderstorms is reduced under conditions with pre-existing atmospheric instability or complex terrain. Also, for such systems, the peak is also captured by a model with a lead of one hour. Overall, this study assesses lightning forecasting using the state-of-the-art WRF-ELEC model and LLN observation over India and adjoining regions under different meteorological conditions and varied topographical regions.

Research highlights

The WRF-ELEC efficiently simulates the lightning flashes with no spatial shift and no time lag of initiation, but an overestimation in the flash count is observed.

ERA5 is the most appropriate source for the IBC for WRF-ELEC for simulating accurate lightning flashes.

WRF-ELEC has room for improvement in simulating precise lightning time for extreme events viz. Dima Hasao heavy rainfall event, May 2022.