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Background <p>The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), a marker of insulin resistance, is linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, longitudinal eGDR patterns and their association with CVD remain unclear in Chinese populations.</p> Objective <p>To identify 5-year eGDR trajectories and assess their association with incident CVD in a Chinese cohort.</p> Methods <p>We analyzed health check-up data from West China Hospital (2010–2022). eGDR trajectories were modeled over 5 years using group-based trajectory modeling. Participants free of CVD at baseline were followed for 5–8 years. Cox regression assessed the relationship between eGDR trajectories and CVD risk, adjusting for covariates; subgroup analyses tested consistency.</p> Results <p>Among 5,039 participants (mean age 44.65 years; 59.18% male), four eGDR trajectories were identified: Persistently High (75.0%), High to Low (16.5%), Low to High (3.5%), and Persistently Low (5.1%). Compared to the Persistently High group, the Persistently Low group had the highest CVD risk (HR: 4.23, 95% CI: 2.98–5.99), followed by High to Low (HR: 3.14, 95% CI: 2.23–4.41) and Low to High (HR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.42–4.00). Kaplan-Meier curves and subgroup analyses confirmed significant risk differences.</p> Conclusion <p>Long-term declines or persistently low eGDR levels significantly increase CVD risk. Monitoring eGDR trajectories can help identify high-risk individuals for early intervention.</p>

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Association Between Trajectories of Estimated Glucose Disposal Rate (eGDR) and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in a Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月27日

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  • Qihang Kong,
  • Junteng Zhou,
  • Xiaojing Liu,
  • Yan Huang

摘要

Background

The estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), a marker of insulin resistance, is linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, longitudinal eGDR patterns and their association with CVD remain unclear in Chinese populations.

Objective

To identify 5-year eGDR trajectories and assess their association with incident CVD in a Chinese cohort.

Methods

We analyzed health check-up data from West China Hospital (2010–2022). eGDR trajectories were modeled over 5 years using group-based trajectory modeling. Participants free of CVD at baseline were followed for 5–8 years. Cox regression assessed the relationship between eGDR trajectories and CVD risk, adjusting for covariates; subgroup analyses tested consistency.

Results

Among 5,039 participants (mean age 44.65 years; 59.18% male), four eGDR trajectories were identified: Persistently High (75.0%), High to Low (16.5%), Low to High (3.5%), and Persistently Low (5.1%). Compared to the Persistently High group, the Persistently Low group had the highest CVD risk (HR: 4.23, 95% CI: 2.98–5.99), followed by High to Low (HR: 3.14, 95% CI: 2.23–4.41) and Low to High (HR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.42–4.00). Kaplan-Meier curves and subgroup analyses confirmed significant risk differences.

Conclusion

Long-term declines or persistently low eGDR levels significantly increase CVD risk. Monitoring eGDR trajectories can help identify high-risk individuals for early intervention.