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Objective <p>To evaluate predictors of mortality in acromegaly using machine learning (ML) models.</p> Methods <p>We analyzed 607 patients with acromegaly. A grid search was applied to compare five types of prediction models in 1,200 configurations. Each model predicted mortality based on 40 disease characteristics, assessed using the Matthews’ correlation coefficient (MCC) and the area under the curve (AUC) metrics. To ensure robust and reliable predictions, we constructed a virtual ensemble model by generating 100 Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) variants and evaluating their performance across 50 random train–test splits.</p> Results <p>The single EBM model fitted to all data achieved an MCC of 0.88 and an AUC of 0.99. Feature importance analysis identified hypertension, first-line transsphenoidal surgery (TSS), disease duration, baseline insulin-like growth factor 1 levels, hypopituitarism, and repeat TSS as key predictors of mortality. A virtual ensemble prediction model showed good generalization performance, with an MCC of 0.64 ± 0.08 and an AUC of 0.96 ± 0.015 across 50 random data splits. 58% of the cohort were female, and 66.9% had macroadenomas. The first-line treatment was TSS in 83.2% of cases. Additional treatments were repeat TSS (16.6%), somatostatin analogs (57%), cabergoline (35.6%), pegvisomant (10.9%), and radiotherapy (16.6%), achieving a 77.8% overall success rate. Hypertension (37.2%) and diabetes (36.4%) were the most common comorbidities. The mortality rate was 8.4%, mainly from cardiovascular disease (41.2%) and cancer (21.6%).</p> Conclusion <p>ML demonstrated strong performance in classifying survival status and identifying mortality predictors in acromegaly. The ensemble model provides a reliable and interpretable tool, balancing accuracy with the robustness required for clinical decision-making.</p>

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Revisiting mortality in acromegaly using machine learning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月13日

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  • Cem Sulu,
  • Gonenc Onay,
  • Guldaran Bakhdiyarli,
  • Serdar Sahin,
  • Emre Durcan,
  • Zehra Kara,
  • Ahmet Numan Demir,
  • Ozgur Martin,
  • Hande Mefkure Ozkaya,
  • Necmettin Tanriover,
  • Nil Comunoglu,
  • Osman Kizilkilic,
  • Nurperi Gazioglu,
  • Pinar Kadioglu

摘要

Objective

To evaluate predictors of mortality in acromegaly using machine learning (ML) models.

Methods

We analyzed 607 patients with acromegaly. A grid search was applied to compare five types of prediction models in 1,200 configurations. Each model predicted mortality based on 40 disease characteristics, assessed using the Matthews’ correlation coefficient (MCC) and the area under the curve (AUC) metrics. To ensure robust and reliable predictions, we constructed a virtual ensemble model by generating 100 Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) variants and evaluating their performance across 50 random train–test splits.

Results

The single EBM model fitted to all data achieved an MCC of 0.88 and an AUC of 0.99. Feature importance analysis identified hypertension, first-line transsphenoidal surgery (TSS), disease duration, baseline insulin-like growth factor 1 levels, hypopituitarism, and repeat TSS as key predictors of mortality. A virtual ensemble prediction model showed good generalization performance, with an MCC of 0.64 ± 0.08 and an AUC of 0.96 ± 0.015 across 50 random data splits. 58% of the cohort were female, and 66.9% had macroadenomas. The first-line treatment was TSS in 83.2% of cases. Additional treatments were repeat TSS (16.6%), somatostatin analogs (57%), cabergoline (35.6%), pegvisomant (10.9%), and radiotherapy (16.6%), achieving a 77.8% overall success rate. Hypertension (37.2%) and diabetes (36.4%) were the most common comorbidities. The mortality rate was 8.4%, mainly from cardiovascular disease (41.2%) and cancer (21.6%).

Conclusion

ML demonstrated strong performance in classifying survival status and identifying mortality predictors in acromegaly. The ensemble model provides a reliable and interpretable tool, balancing accuracy with the robustness required for clinical decision-making.