PM2.5-attributable chronic disease burden in BRICS–plus countries, 1990–2021: temporal trends and health benefits from optimal control
摘要
This study aims to assess PM2.5-attributable five chronic diseases burden in BRICS-plus over 1990–2021, identify key driving factors, and provide evidence for targeted air quality and public health policies.
MethodsWe analyzed the PM2.5-attributable burden of ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and tracheal/bronchus/lung cancer for both ambient PM2.5 and household air pollution from solid fuel combustion (HAP). Decomposition analysis (aging, population, epidemiological change) and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were used to explore burden drivers and preventable disease burden.
ResultsAmbient PM2.5-attributable chronic disease burdens showed an upward trend in most BRICS-plus, particularly of T2DM burden in China (from 14.10 [6.17,25.82] to 134.47 [72.81,213.96] from 1990 to 2021) and India (from 15.41 [7.58,27.09] to 102.53 [53.86,161.27] from 1990 to 2021). HAP-attributable showed increases trend in India and Ethiopia. Population has made a consistent positive contribution to the evolving disease burdens. Ethiopia showing the highest HAP-PAFs (COPD: 60.83%, stroke: 39.58%). Egypt and Saudi Arabia showed highest ambient PM2.5-PAF.
ConclusionsOverall, ambient PM2.5 has become an important contributor to chronic disease burdens (notably in China and India), while HAP-attributable burdens generally declined except in India and Ethiopia. Population contributed positively to five disease burdens, aging and epidemiological changes notable country differences. Reducing PM2.5 and HAP to TMREL significantly alleviated disease burdens (particularly COPD). BRICS-plus countries should address ambient PM2.5and HAP, population growth and protect vulnerable groups to mitigate the long‑term PM2.5-related disease burdens.