<p>Differential information is a core principle in grey system theory. However, traditional grey multivariate models often overlook the variations between feature sequences and related factor sequences. This oversight leads to a loss of critical information and weakens the model’s predictive accuracy. Firstly, to fully utilize differential information, this paper proposes the multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey prediction model. Secondly, with the introduction of the implementation program for the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions, North China has stepped up its efforts to combat atmospheric pollution and reduce carbon emissions. There is spatial correlation of air quality in the region. Therefore, the paper proposes the spatiotemporal multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey model. Finally, the spatiotemporal multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey model is applied to air quality prediction in North China. This model enables analysis of both future air quality trends in each province and the overall regional air quality under different carbon emission rates. These insights offer robust theoretical and empirical support for developing future synergy policies on pollution and carbon reduction.</p>

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Heterogeneous spatiotemporal forecasting the impact of carbon policies on air quality

  • Li Yongtong,
  • Wang Yonghua,
  • Sun Tianwei,
  • Yan Chen

摘要

Differential information is a core principle in grey system theory. However, traditional grey multivariate models often overlook the variations between feature sequences and related factor sequences. This oversight leads to a loss of critical information and weakens the model’s predictive accuracy. Firstly, to fully utilize differential information, this paper proposes the multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey prediction model. Secondly, with the introduction of the implementation program for the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions, North China has stepped up its efforts to combat atmospheric pollution and reduce carbon emissions. There is spatial correlation of air quality in the region. Therefore, the paper proposes the spatiotemporal multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey model. Finally, the spatiotemporal multivariate heterogeneous cumulative grey model is applied to air quality prediction in North China. This model enables analysis of both future air quality trends in each province and the overall regional air quality under different carbon emission rates. These insights offer robust theoretical and empirical support for developing future synergy policies on pollution and carbon reduction.