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<p>Wetlands are essential ecosystems that support numerous natural cycles and provide critical habitats for wildlife. Despite various studies examining changes in Türkiye’s inland water bodies, there is a notable lack of comprehensive research focusing on the shoreline dynamics and management of its internationally significant Ramsar sites. This research focuses on four Ramsar-listed inland wetland ecosystems in Türkiye—Burdur, Uluabat, Seyfe, and Manyas. Using satellite imagery from 2016, 2020, and 2024, the historical and current shoreline dynamics and spatial extents of these sites were analyzed through NDWI, WRI, NDVI, mNDWI, and AWEI. Correlation analysis among these indices provided insights into the vegetation boundary conditions. Additionally, temperature and precipitation trends were examined to assess climate change impacts. To forecast future spatial trends, the ARIMA model was applied, projecting the shoreline retreat over the next eight years. The analysis indicates alarming trends, particularly for Seyfe and Burdur. By 2033, Burdur is expected to experience significant shoreline recession, losing about 18.37% of its surface area, while Seyfe could shrink by 8.42%. In contrast, Manyas and Uluabat show more stable boundaries, with projected reductions of less than 1%. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies and effective spatial planning to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Türkiye’s Ramsar sites. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the crucial role of remote sensing techniques in developing robust plans for the sustainable management of inland coastal ecosystems and wetland borders.</p>

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Unveiling climate risks in Türkiye’s inland Ramsar lakes: remote sensing insights and ARIMA modeling for shoreline management

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月3日

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  • Duygu Arikan Ispir

摘要

Wetlands are essential ecosystems that support numerous natural cycles and provide critical habitats for wildlife. Despite various studies examining changes in Türkiye’s inland water bodies, there is a notable lack of comprehensive research focusing on the shoreline dynamics and management of its internationally significant Ramsar sites. This research focuses on four Ramsar-listed inland wetland ecosystems in Türkiye—Burdur, Uluabat, Seyfe, and Manyas. Using satellite imagery from 2016, 2020, and 2024, the historical and current shoreline dynamics and spatial extents of these sites were analyzed through NDWI, WRI, NDVI, mNDWI, and AWEI. Correlation analysis among these indices provided insights into the vegetation boundary conditions. Additionally, temperature and precipitation trends were examined to assess climate change impacts. To forecast future spatial trends, the ARIMA model was applied, projecting the shoreline retreat over the next eight years. The analysis indicates alarming trends, particularly for Seyfe and Burdur. By 2033, Burdur is expected to experience significant shoreline recession, losing about 18.37% of its surface area, while Seyfe could shrink by 8.42%. In contrast, Manyas and Uluabat show more stable boundaries, with projected reductions of less than 1%. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies and effective spatial planning to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Türkiye’s Ramsar sites. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the crucial role of remote sensing techniques in developing robust plans for the sustainable management of inland coastal ecosystems and wetland borders.