Evaluating micro-level analysis of rural societal vulnerability in coastal regions: a case study of Gosaba C.D. Block, West Bengal, India
摘要
The Gosaba C.D. block of West Bengal, in the Indian Sundarbans, is becoming increasingly vulnerable due to environmental, socio-economic, and climatic issues. Rural communities in the region rely mostly on agriculture and fishing for their livelihoods and are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as cyclones, storm surges, and coastal flooding. In order to give a detailed account of the risks facing the area and this study integrates indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to perform a micro-level assessment of societal vulnerability in Gosaba C.D. block. In this study Pearson’s correlation, linear regression, and multinomial logistic regression model have been adopted to show the degree of influence by the indicators on vulnerability index. Using a combination of socio-economic data and spatial analysis, this study pinpoints important vulnerability-inducing attributes, such as population density, occupational structure, financial accessibility, and infrastructure shortcomings. This study identifies several key indicators of vulnerability. Landless household, agriculture labour, child population and cropland are considered as key sensitivity factors. Regarding the exposure to risk, the determining factors emerged are proportion of population over the age of 60, elevation, slope, distance to coastline susceptibility flooding, the density of cyclone tracks and distance from the river. In the context of adaptive capacity, key variables include literacy rate, the prevalence of temporary housing, female literacy, access to electricity, availability of toilet facilities, bank account ownership and the presence of permanent housing. The study shows most vulnerable mouzas (revenue village units) are Gopalkata, Baramollakhali, Amlamethi, Mathurakhanda, etc., whereas the lowest vulnerability prone mouzas are Jhaukhali, Arampur, etc. In order to reduce risks and promote sustainable development in high-risk rural communities, the study emphasizes the necessity of focused policy interventions and disaster resilience techniques. It is reflected through analysis of various indicators of adaptive capacity such as improved housing, access to basic infrastructure, financial inclusion and literacy rates which collectively enhance the ability of rural communities to prepare for immediate response to and recover from coastal disaster.