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<p>Coastal zones worldwide are increasingly experiencing morphological instability driven by sea-level rise, intensifying wave climates, altered sediment budgets, and rapid human-induced shoreline modification. These pressures are particularly severe along densely populated tropical coasts where land subsidence and ecosystem degradation amplify shoreline retreat and tidal flooding. The northern coast of Java represents one of the most dynamic coastal environments in Southeast Asia. However, spatially explicit evidence linking shoreline dynamics with coastal spatial planning remains limited. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of shoreline change along the Jepara coast between 2013 and 2025 and identifies abrasion hotspots to support climate-adaptive coastal planning. Multi-temporal Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery were processed in Google Earth Engine using NDWI- and MNDWI-based shoreline extraction, calibrated against national shoreline datasets. Shoreline displacement was quantified, and spatial clustering of extreme erosion was detected using the Getis–Ord Gi* hotspot statistic. The resulting hotspot distribution was subsequently overlaid with the Jepara Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW). Results reveal a dominant pattern of shoreline retreat, with local erosion exceeding − 20&#xa0;m, reaching up to − 57&#xa0;m. Statistically significant abrasion hotspots are concentrated along the Tahunan–Jepara–Mlonggo–Kembang coastal corridor and western Donorojo, whereas accretion occurs only locally in Kedung and northeastern Donorojo. Overlay analysis shows that several RTRW land-use zones are located within active erosion hotspots, indicating a spatial mismatch between coastal dynamics and planned land use. These findings highlight the need for dynamic setback lines, ecosystem-based protection, and climate-adaptive spatial planning to improve long-term coastal resilience in Jepara.</p>

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Spatio-temporal dynamics of shoreline retreat and abrasion hotspots in Jepara Coastal zone (Northern Java, Indonesia): implications for climate-adaptive spatial planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Rifqiya Luthfiyani,
  • Andi Eka Sakya,
  • Adi Wibowo

摘要

Coastal zones worldwide are increasingly experiencing morphological instability driven by sea-level rise, intensifying wave climates, altered sediment budgets, and rapid human-induced shoreline modification. These pressures are particularly severe along densely populated tropical coasts where land subsidence and ecosystem degradation amplify shoreline retreat and tidal flooding. The northern coast of Java represents one of the most dynamic coastal environments in Southeast Asia. However, spatially explicit evidence linking shoreline dynamics with coastal spatial planning remains limited. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of shoreline change along the Jepara coast between 2013 and 2025 and identifies abrasion hotspots to support climate-adaptive coastal planning. Multi-temporal Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery were processed in Google Earth Engine using NDWI- and MNDWI-based shoreline extraction, calibrated against national shoreline datasets. Shoreline displacement was quantified, and spatial clustering of extreme erosion was detected using the Getis–Ord Gi* hotspot statistic. The resulting hotspot distribution was subsequently overlaid with the Jepara Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW). Results reveal a dominant pattern of shoreline retreat, with local erosion exceeding − 20 m, reaching up to − 57 m. Statistically significant abrasion hotspots are concentrated along the Tahunan–Jepara–Mlonggo–Kembang coastal corridor and western Donorojo, whereas accretion occurs only locally in Kedung and northeastern Donorojo. Overlay analysis shows that several RTRW land-use zones are located within active erosion hotspots, indicating a spatial mismatch between coastal dynamics and planned land use. These findings highlight the need for dynamic setback lines, ecosystem-based protection, and climate-adaptive spatial planning to improve long-term coastal resilience in Jepara.