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<p>This research seeks to map the spawning and nursery habitats critical for two small pelagic species of both ecological and commercial significance: European sardine (<i>Sardina pilchardus</i>) and Atlantic horse mackerel (<i>Trachurus trachurus</i>) in the southern Alboran Sea, which is situated along the southwestern Moroccan Mediterranean coast. Introducing the influence of different environmental drivers, we aim to elucidate the spatio-temporal distribution and abundance of both species, through Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) as a stand-in for stock availability. Findings will inform the design of ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches.&#xa0;Satellite-based environmental datasets, namely sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea level anomaly (SLA), and surface plankton biomass, were combined with landing records from the MAIA fisheries observation platform between 2009 and 2023. To relate the LPUE to the set of environmental predictors, we fitted Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Model diagnostics included Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) to detect multicollinearity, deviance explained (DE) as a goodness-of-fit measurement, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) for predictive performance, and coefficient of determination (R²) to quantify the proportion of variance explained. Spatial prediction maps have been generated using GIS tools.&#xa0;The best model identified sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and zooplankton biomass as the main drivers of <i>S. pilchardus</i>, accounting for 44.7% of the deviation. The predicted spatial distribution of European sardine abundance showed a clear north–south gradient, with mean values ranging from 0.8 t/km<sup>2</sup> during winter months to 0.96 t/km<sup>2</sup> during summer–autumn. For <i>T. trachurus</i>, the best-performing model explained 56.6% of the deviance and identified sea surface temperature (16–21&#xa0;°C), sea surface salinity, phytoplankton concentration, and zooplankton biomass as the key variables influencing the spatial distribution of the stock. The predicted spatial distribution indicated a mean abundance of approximately 1 t/km<sup>2</sup>, increasing from northern to southern regions. Higher LPUE values were mainly observed in southern nearshore areas during winter, whereas during summer–autumn the species exhibited a broader offshore distribution with lower average values (around 0.5 t/km<sup>2</sup>).&#xa0;These results indicate that the LPUE for both species can be impacted by environmental conditions. Our analysis indicates that species-specific models and consideration of the particular season under study are necessary for efficient fisheries management in the Southern Alboran Sea.</p>

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Modeling the habitat suitability for spawning and recruitment of the Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) and the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) along the Southern Alboran Sea (Moroccan Mediterranean coasts): a comparative analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月23日

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  • Soufiane Hasni,
  • Sana El Arraf,
  • Bilal Mghili,
  • Mohammed Malouli Idrissi,
  • Amina Barakat

摘要

This research seeks to map the spawning and nursery habitats critical for two small pelagic species of both ecological and commercial significance: European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) in the southern Alboran Sea, which is situated along the southwestern Moroccan Mediterranean coast. Introducing the influence of different environmental drivers, we aim to elucidate the spatio-temporal distribution and abundance of both species, through Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) as a stand-in for stock availability. Findings will inform the design of ecosystem-based fisheries management approaches. Satellite-based environmental datasets, namely sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea level anomaly (SLA), and surface plankton biomass, were combined with landing records from the MAIA fisheries observation platform between 2009 and 2023. To relate the LPUE to the set of environmental predictors, we fitted Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Model diagnostics included Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) to detect multicollinearity, deviance explained (DE) as a goodness-of-fit measurement, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) for predictive performance, and coefficient of determination (R²) to quantify the proportion of variance explained. Spatial prediction maps have been generated using GIS tools. The best model identified sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and zooplankton biomass as the main drivers of S. pilchardus, accounting for 44.7% of the deviation. The predicted spatial distribution of European sardine abundance showed a clear north–south gradient, with mean values ranging from 0.8 t/km2 during winter months to 0.96 t/km2 during summer–autumn. For T. trachurus, the best-performing model explained 56.6% of the deviance and identified sea surface temperature (16–21 °C), sea surface salinity, phytoplankton concentration, and zooplankton biomass as the key variables influencing the spatial distribution of the stock. The predicted spatial distribution indicated a mean abundance of approximately 1 t/km2, increasing from northern to southern regions. Higher LPUE values were mainly observed in southern nearshore areas during winter, whereas during summer–autumn the species exhibited a broader offshore distribution with lower average values (around 0.5 t/km2). These results indicate that the LPUE for both species can be impacted by environmental conditions. Our analysis indicates that species-specific models and consideration of the particular season under study are necessary for efficient fisheries management in the Southern Alboran Sea.