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<p>Coastal areas face elevated risks of severe inundation due to sea-level rise and storm surges exacerbated by climate change. Coastal flooding is becoming increasingly frequent, particularly in low-lying areas with land subsidence. El Djamila Bay, on the western Algiers coast, is a tourist and patrimonial area highly vulnerable to marine flooding. Its residential and infrastructure zones, built on narrow sandy dunes less than 2&#xa0;m above mean sea level, are extremely sensitive to marine flood risks. Most flooding events (80%-90%) result from wave uprush and setup due to storm-induced wave breaking. This study aims to identify the components of water surface elevation during flood events and maps marine submersion risks along the coast of the bay. To model the water levels, an empirical approach was considered, integrating wave surges, sea-level rise, wind speed, and tidal fluctuations. These data were integrated into a Geographic Information System and combined with land-use maps to delineate areas prone to flooding. Results show a strong correlation between return periods and flooded areas. The 2-year return period gives an inundation area of 64.36 hectares, while the 100-year return period gives 189.71 hectares with the most vulnerable urbanized zones. These findings confirm the urgency of sustainable management in the coastal zone. Adaptation and resilience can be achieved through improved urban planning and protective infrastructure in mitigating climate-related hazards at a vulnerable coastal zone, such as El Djamila Bay.</p>

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Forecasting extreme events and storms and prediction of coastal flooding along microtidal Coast of El Djamila Bay, Algeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月7日

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  • Moussaab Berkani,
  • Housseyn Otmani,
  • Khoudir Mezouar,
  • Brahim Saf

摘要

Coastal areas face elevated risks of severe inundation due to sea-level rise and storm surges exacerbated by climate change. Coastal flooding is becoming increasingly frequent, particularly in low-lying areas with land subsidence. El Djamila Bay, on the western Algiers coast, is a tourist and patrimonial area highly vulnerable to marine flooding. Its residential and infrastructure zones, built on narrow sandy dunes less than 2 m above mean sea level, are extremely sensitive to marine flood risks. Most flooding events (80%-90%) result from wave uprush and setup due to storm-induced wave breaking. This study aims to identify the components of water surface elevation during flood events and maps marine submersion risks along the coast of the bay. To model the water levels, an empirical approach was considered, integrating wave surges, sea-level rise, wind speed, and tidal fluctuations. These data were integrated into a Geographic Information System and combined with land-use maps to delineate areas prone to flooding. Results show a strong correlation between return periods and flooded areas. The 2-year return period gives an inundation area of 64.36 hectares, while the 100-year return period gives 189.71 hectares with the most vulnerable urbanized zones. These findings confirm the urgency of sustainable management in the coastal zone. Adaptation and resilience can be achieved through improved urban planning and protective infrastructure in mitigating climate-related hazards at a vulnerable coastal zone, such as El Djamila Bay.