<p>The utilization of ultra-fine tailings cemented paste backfill (UCPB) is a key strategy for sustainable mine waste management. However, the thixotropic behavior of UCPB—its time-dependent rheological parameters—presents a critical challenge for pipeline transportation. This study develops a novel thixotropic kinetic model to predict this behavior. The model integrates two core components: a structural kinetic equation describing the evolution of an internal structural coefficient under shear, and a state equation linking this coefficient to Bingham rheological parameters (yield stress and viscosity). This comprehensive seven-parameter model was validated against laboratory tests, showing excellent agreement with experimental data (<i>R</i>² &gt; 0.98). The study found that ultra-fine particle content most strongly influences thixotropy. A pipeline resistance model derived from these findings was then validated through multiple industrial trials, achieving a low average error of approximately 6.7%. Crucially, the model confirms that steady-state pipeline resistance is just 40% of its initial value. Utilizing this steady-state resistance for design can significantly reduce mining costs, improving the economic and environmental viability of UCPB technology for sustainable mining.</p>