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<p>Fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) have emerged as major air pollutants in China, posing risks to human health. In this paper, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, a key region for air pollution prevention and control in China, was selected as the study area to analyze the characteristics of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> concentration changes and their health effects from 2014 to 2023, and to estimate the potential health benefits of realizing different emission reduction standards in 2030. The results have shown that: 1) The annual average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2023, while the daily maximum 8-h sliding average of O<sub>3</sub> (O<sub>3</sub>-8h concentration) showed a fluctuating increasing trend. 2) The number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution showed a decreasing trend, while the changes in the number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to O<sub>3</sub> pollution showed an opposite trend, in which the health risks and economic losses in Beijing and Tianjin were relatively prominent. 3) If the annual average concentrations of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> in 2030 reach the limits of the secondary standards of Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012), the number of premature deaths attributed to PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will decrease by 23.08% and 20.45%, respectively, compared with that in 2023, and with the increase of per capita disposable income year by year, the health and economic losses will be reduced by 41.23 × 10<sup>8</sup> yuan (RMB) (95% CI: 33.71 × 10<sup>8</sup>−48.72 × 10<sup>8</sup> yuan) and 98.89 × 10<sup>8</sup> yuan (95% CI: 54.14 × 10<sup>8</sup>−142.67 × 10<sup>8</sup> yuan), respectively; the increase in the number of premature deaths can be further avoided and significant economic benefits can be realized if the concentrations of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> are further reduced to higher standards. The study shows that the PM<sub>2.5</sub> control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been effective, but the O<sub>3</sub> pollution problem is emphasized, and the number of health deaths and economic losses caused by it are on the rise, and higher target air quality standards should be set in order to effectively improve the health of residents and bring significant economic benefits.</p>

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Health Benefits and Scenario Projections of PM2.5 and O3 Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月20日

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  • Yucong Wang,
  • Yingfan Zhao,
  • Ruiguang Xu,
  • Boni Pei,
  • Hongyu Wang,
  • Litao Wang,
  • Qing Wang,
  • Jingyun Liu,
  • Weiwei Chen,
  • Kai Song

摘要

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) have emerged as major air pollutants in China, posing risks to human health. In this paper, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, a key region for air pollution prevention and control in China, was selected as the study area to analyze the characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 concentration changes and their health effects from 2014 to 2023, and to estimate the potential health benefits of realizing different emission reduction standards in 2030. The results have shown that: 1) The annual average PM2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2023, while the daily maximum 8-h sliding average of O3 (O3-8h concentration) showed a fluctuating increasing trend. 2) The number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to PM2.5 pollution showed a decreasing trend, while the changes in the number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to O3 pollution showed an opposite trend, in which the health risks and economic losses in Beijing and Tianjin were relatively prominent. 3) If the annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 in 2030 reach the limits of the secondary standards of Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012), the number of premature deaths attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will decrease by 23.08% and 20.45%, respectively, compared with that in 2023, and with the increase of per capita disposable income year by year, the health and economic losses will be reduced by 41.23 × 108 yuan (RMB) (95% CI: 33.71 × 108−48.72 × 108 yuan) and 98.89 × 108 yuan (95% CI: 54.14 × 108−142.67 × 108 yuan), respectively; the increase in the number of premature deaths can be further avoided and significant economic benefits can be realized if the concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 are further reduced to higher standards. The study shows that the PM2.5 control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been effective, but the O3 pollution problem is emphasized, and the number of health deaths and economic losses caused by it are on the rise, and higher target air quality standards should be set in order to effectively improve the health of residents and bring significant economic benefits.