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<p>The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the offender group reconviction scale&#xa0;3 (OGRS&#xa0;3) in the juvenile penal system regarding criminal recidivism. The study was based on a&#xa0;retrospective analysis of <i>N</i> = 590 imprisoned juvenile offenders. The OGRS&#xa0;3 scores were calculated and assessed for their predictive performance using receiver operating characteristic-(ROC) curves and calibration analyses. The OGRS&#xa0;3 significantly predicted both criminal recidivism (CR) and violent recidivism (VR). Small effect sizes were found for follow-up periods of 1&#xa0;year (CR: area under the curve, AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.61), 2&#xa0;years (CR: AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.62), and 5&#xa0;years after release from prison (CR: AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.62). Calibration analyses revealed systematic deviations between predicted and actually observed recidivism rates. Overall, the study demonstrates a&#xa0;stable but limited predictive validity of the OGRS&#xa0;3. For reliable application in juvenile penal settings, a&#xa0;specific recalibration of the instrument and its integration into a&#xa0;multimodal diagnostic concept are essential.</p>

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Die Offender Group Reconviction Scale 3 im deutschen Jugendstrafvollzug: eine Validierungsstudie zur Rückfallprädiktion

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月23日

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  • Richard Beyer,
  • Stefanie Puderbach,
  • Daniela Hosser

摘要

The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of the offender group reconviction scale 3 (OGRS 3) in the juvenile penal system regarding criminal recidivism. The study was based on a retrospective analysis of N = 590 imprisoned juvenile offenders. The OGRS 3 scores were calculated and assessed for their predictive performance using receiver operating characteristic-(ROC) curves and calibration analyses. The OGRS 3 significantly predicted both criminal recidivism (CR) and violent recidivism (VR). Small effect sizes were found for follow-up periods of 1 year (CR: area under the curve, AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.61), 2 years (CR: AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.62), and 5 years after release from prison (CR: AUC = 0.61; VR: AUC = 0.62). Calibration analyses revealed systematic deviations between predicted and actually observed recidivism rates. Overall, the study demonstrates a stable but limited predictive validity of the OGRS 3. For reliable application in juvenile penal settings, a specific recalibration of the instrument and its integration into a multimodal diagnostic concept are essential.