<p>We in this paper propose a robust estimation technique for a first-order autoregressive process characterized by the root <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\rho _n=1+c/k_n\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>+</mo> <mi>c</mi> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, employing a kernel mode-based objective function construed on the mode value. Compared to traditional least squares or maximum likelihood approaches, the newly developed method exhibits enhanced robustness against outliers and non-normal errors. We suggest a computationally efficient mode expectation-maximization algorithm leveraging a Gaussian kernel to numerically estimate the coefficient. Under mild assumptions, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the resulting kernel mode-based estimator, assuming that <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(k_n\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> increases to infinity at a slower rate than <i>n</i>. Specifically, for <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(c&lt;0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mo>&lt;</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, we establish a convergence rate of <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\sqrt{nk_n}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msqrt> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msqrt> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> with a normal limit distribution, while for <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(c&gt;0\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mo>&gt;</mo> <mn>0</mn> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, the convergence rate is <InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(k_n \rho ^n_n\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msub> <mi>k</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> <msubsup> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msubsup> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> with a Cauchy limit distribution. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to illustrate the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. Furthermore, we extend these results to the general autoregressive process with a coefficient satisfying <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(n |1-\rho _n |\rightarrow \infty \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mrow> <mi>n</mi> <mo stretchy="false">|</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> </mrow> <msub> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">|</mo> <mo stretchy="false">→</mo> <mi>∞</mi> </mrow> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> under weaker initial conditions. The convergence rates are demonstrated to be <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\([n(1-\rho ^2_n)^{-1}]^{1/2}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">[</mo> <mi>n</mi> <msup> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>-</mo> <msubsup> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msubsup> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> </msup> <mo stretchy="false">]</mo> </mrow> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mn>2</mn> </mrow> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> and <InlineEquation ID="IEq9"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\rho ^n_n/(\rho ^2_n-1)\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <msubsup> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>n</mi> </msubsup> <mo stretchy="false">/</mo> <mrow> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <msubsup> <mi>ρ</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mn>2</mn> </msubsup> <mo>-</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> for nearly stationary and mildly explosive cases, respectively.</p>

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On robust estimation for moderate deviations from a unit root

  • Tao Wang

摘要

We in this paper propose a robust estimation technique for a first-order autoregressive process characterized by the root \(\rho _n=1+c/k_n\) ρ n = 1 + c / k n , employing a kernel mode-based objective function construed on the mode value. Compared to traditional least squares or maximum likelihood approaches, the newly developed method exhibits enhanced robustness against outliers and non-normal errors. We suggest a computationally efficient mode expectation-maximization algorithm leveraging a Gaussian kernel to numerically estimate the coefficient. Under mild assumptions, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the resulting kernel mode-based estimator, assuming that \(k_n\) k n increases to infinity at a slower rate than n. Specifically, for \(c<0\) c < 0 , we establish a convergence rate of \(\sqrt{nk_n}\) n k n with a normal limit distribution, while for \(c>0\) c > 0 , the convergence rate is \(k_n \rho ^n_n\) k n ρ n n with a Cauchy limit distribution. Monte Carlo simulations are presented to illustrate the favorable finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure. Furthermore, we extend these results to the general autoregressive process with a coefficient satisfying \(n |1-\rho _n |\rightarrow \infty \) n | 1 - ρ n | under weaker initial conditions. The convergence rates are demonstrated to be \([n(1-\rho ^2_n)^{-1}]^{1/2}\) [ n ( 1 - ρ n 2 ) - 1 ] 1 / 2 and \(\rho ^n_n/(\rho ^2_n-1)\) ρ n n / ( ρ n 2 - 1 ) for nearly stationary and mildly explosive cases, respectively.