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<p>Liver cancer due to hepatitis B (LCHB) presents a major public health challenge, particularly in younger populations. To date, comprehensive analyses of the global burden and changing trends of LCHB in young adults aged 15–49&#xa0;years are understudied. We collected prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to quantify temporal trends. The future burden to 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. From 1990 to 2021, the global prevalence, mortality, and DALYs cases of LCHB in young adults increased by 49.72%, 18.70%, and 16.08%, while the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) declined, with EAPCs of −&#xa0;0.66%, −&#xa0;1.49%, and −&#xa0;1.54%, respectively. The sex ratio remained consistent at 5:1 (male to female). The middle and high-middle SDI regions bore heavier burden than other SDI regions. In 2021, East Asia recorded the highest cases and age-standardized rate of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. The younger age groups exhibited lower disease burden compared to older ones. New case numbers are predicted to increase globally, particularly in China. While the absolute cases of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for LCHB in young adults have increased globally, the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR have declined over the past 32&#xa0;years. Temporal trend varied by region, country, sex, and age group, with the global burden expected to present ongoing challenges.</p>

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Global, regional, and national burden and trends of liver cancer due to hepatitis B in young adults from 1990 to 2021 and forecast to 2030: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月30日

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  • Jinbo Li,
  • Yaling Li,
  • Bihong Ke,
  • Xiaosheng Zhang,
  • Weigang Wang,
  • Yandi Li,
  • Jia Lian,
  • Tian Yao,
  • Keke Wang,
  • Suping Wang,
  • Yongliang Feng

摘要

Liver cancer due to hepatitis B (LCHB) presents a major public health challenge, particularly in younger populations. To date, comprehensive analyses of the global burden and changing trends of LCHB in young adults aged 15–49 years are understudied. We collected prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated to quantify temporal trends. The future burden to 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. From 1990 to 2021, the global prevalence, mortality, and DALYs cases of LCHB in young adults increased by 49.72%, 18.70%, and 16.08%, while the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) declined, with EAPCs of − 0.66%, − 1.49%, and − 1.54%, respectively. The sex ratio remained consistent at 5:1 (male to female). The middle and high-middle SDI regions bore heavier burden than other SDI regions. In 2021, East Asia recorded the highest cases and age-standardized rate of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. The younger age groups exhibited lower disease burden compared to older ones. New case numbers are predicted to increase globally, particularly in China. While the absolute cases of prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for LCHB in young adults have increased globally, the ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR have declined over the past 32 years. Temporal trend varied by region, country, sex, and age group, with the global burden expected to present ongoing challenges.