<p>Possible links between the Earth’s surface temperature and solar variability are investigated using uni- and bivariate wavelet methods, in an attempt to attribute the fluctuations of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Time-varying strengths of oscillations on different time scales in time series for several sets of GMST and solar activity indices are evaluated using continuous wavelet transform. Furthermore, possible relationships on different time scales between the GMST and solar activity time series are investigated using cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analyses. The results show that for the most prominent oscillations of solar activity on the ∼11-year scale, no statistically significant response is found in any of the temperature time series. Little evidence is found supporting the postulated link on the ∼60-year time scale between surface temperature and solar activity. The ∼60-year oscillations in the climate system likely stem from internal variabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, especially the variabilities in the North Atlantic and the associated variabilities in the western tropical Pacific, rather than solar variability. The latitudinal differences in temperature response to solar activity depend on time scales. Our findings do not support the notion that solar variability has been playing a dominant role in recent climate change.</p>

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Probing links between climate change and solar variability using wavelet analyses

  • Dong Wang,
  • Wenjing Jia

摘要

Possible links between the Earth’s surface temperature and solar variability are investigated using uni- and bivariate wavelet methods, in an attempt to attribute the fluctuations of the global mean surface temperature (GMST). Time-varying strengths of oscillations on different time scales in time series for several sets of GMST and solar activity indices are evaluated using continuous wavelet transform. Furthermore, possible relationships on different time scales between the GMST and solar activity time series are investigated using cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analyses. The results show that for the most prominent oscillations of solar activity on the ∼11-year scale, no statistically significant response is found in any of the temperature time series. Little evidence is found supporting the postulated link on the ∼60-year time scale between surface temperature and solar activity. The ∼60-year oscillations in the climate system likely stem from internal variabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, especially the variabilities in the North Atlantic and the associated variabilities in the western tropical Pacific, rather than solar variability. The latitudinal differences in temperature response to solar activity depend on time scales. Our findings do not support the notion that solar variability has been playing a dominant role in recent climate change.