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<p>Why are some regions rich and others poor? This study investigates the geographical origins of Italy’s persistent regional income gap. Using municipal population density as both a proxy for historical income and an outcome shaped by geography, we show that first-nature advantages, such as mild climates and fertile soils, predict higher population density in Northern Italy from the earliest available data (c. 500 AD). Second-nature forces (agglomeration and market connectivity) then reinforced this initial lead. We find that first- and second-nature geography jointly predict half of today’s municipal variation in income per capita, whereas Italy’s pre-unification regional histories account for only about one-fifth.</p>

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The geographical origins of the wealth of regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月5日

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  • Alexandra L. Cermeño,
  • Carla Salvo,
  • Jacob Weisdorf

摘要

Why are some regions rich and others poor? This study investigates the geographical origins of Italy’s persistent regional income gap. Using municipal population density as both a proxy for historical income and an outcome shaped by geography, we show that first-nature advantages, such as mild climates and fertile soils, predict higher population density in Northern Italy from the earliest available data (c. 500 AD). Second-nature forces (agglomeration and market connectivity) then reinforced this initial lead. We find that first- and second-nature geography jointly predict half of today’s municipal variation in income per capita, whereas Italy’s pre-unification regional histories account for only about one-fifth.