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<p>The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set the agenda for future development, with economic, environmental, and social sustainability as the three pillars of sustainability. Achieving the SDGs requires understanding the combined impact of current policies over time. The Inclusive Wealth (IW) Index integrates economic, environmental, and social dimensions, providing a comprehensive tool for assessing sustainability at the regional level. However, its use in forecasting future sustainability trends is limited, restricting its applicability in guiding long-term policy development. Developing countries, particularly those reliant on coal-fired power generation, face the dual challenges of promoting economic growth while mitigating the impacts of climate change. Renewable energy (RE) offers a potential solution to reduce carbon emissions, but it also presents economic and infrastructural challenges. This study proposes a new framework that combines the computable general equilibrium and Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies models to estimate future sustainability under the IW framework, focusing on RE development, air pollution alleviation, and carbon emission abatement. Using Shandong Province as a case study, the framework provides a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of RE development on the economy, carbon damage, and health capital. Our results indicate that carbon pricing can increase reliance on electricity transmission for the low-carbon transition, while local RE replaces local thermal power to some extent. The findings show that the development of RE and domestic electricity transmission positively impacts GDP, air pollution alleviation, carbon abatement, and human health capital, which can be further accelerated by carbon tax policies. The co-benefit of air pollution reduction and carbon abatement provides valuable insights for policymakers, suggesting that policies promoting energy structural shifts may be beneficial for sustainable development.</p>

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Impacts of low-carbon transition on human capital and future sustainability via electricity market: a framework based on inclusive wealth analysis at the regional level in China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月20日

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  • Bo Shi,
  • Qiuhui Jiang,
  • Minjun Shi,
  • Shunsuke Managi

摘要

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set the agenda for future development, with economic, environmental, and social sustainability as the three pillars of sustainability. Achieving the SDGs requires understanding the combined impact of current policies over time. The Inclusive Wealth (IW) Index integrates economic, environmental, and social dimensions, providing a comprehensive tool for assessing sustainability at the regional level. However, its use in forecasting future sustainability trends is limited, restricting its applicability in guiding long-term policy development. Developing countries, particularly those reliant on coal-fired power generation, face the dual challenges of promoting economic growth while mitigating the impacts of climate change. Renewable energy (RE) offers a potential solution to reduce carbon emissions, but it also presents economic and infrastructural challenges. This study proposes a new framework that combines the computable general equilibrium and Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies models to estimate future sustainability under the IW framework, focusing on RE development, air pollution alleviation, and carbon emission abatement. Using Shandong Province as a case study, the framework provides a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of RE development on the economy, carbon damage, and health capital. Our results indicate that carbon pricing can increase reliance on electricity transmission for the low-carbon transition, while local RE replaces local thermal power to some extent. The findings show that the development of RE and domestic electricity transmission positively impacts GDP, air pollution alleviation, carbon abatement, and human health capital, which can be further accelerated by carbon tax policies. The co-benefit of air pollution reduction and carbon abatement provides valuable insights for policymakers, suggesting that policies promoting energy structural shifts may be beneficial for sustainable development.