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<p>A&#xa0;new apportionment method is to be used in future local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. It is named after its creator, Simon Rock, a&#xa0;Green Party member of the state parliament. The Rock method was created with the intention of increasing the vote share a&#xa0;party needs to get the first seat. This provoked protests from smaller parties such as the FDP, which brought an action before the Constitutional Court of the state. This article examines the characteristics of the Rock method, which is still largely unknown in terms of its effects. Firstly, its “natural” lower and upper thresholds are determined, which correspond to the share of votes from which a&#xa0;party can or must (theoretically) obtain its first seat. Secondly, a&#xa0;Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the share of votes at which the probability of winning the first seat is 50%. The simulation shows that parties must be mathematically entitled to an average of approximately 0.88 seats in order to obtain at least one seat. This means that the blocking effect of the Rock method comes very close to the one-seat threshold that was declared unconstitutional in 2008. Contrary to what Rock claims, his procedure favors larger parties in the distribution of seats at the expense of smaller parties, even beyond the higher entry hurdle. In this respect, it lags only marginally behind the effects of the D’Hondt method.</p>

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Einsitzhürde im neuen Gewand? Analyse des neuen Sitzzuteilungsverfahrens für Kommunalwahlen in Nordrhein-Westfalen

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月27日

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  • Jona-Frederik Baumert

摘要

A new apportionment method is to be used in future local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. It is named after its creator, Simon Rock, a Green Party member of the state parliament. The Rock method was created with the intention of increasing the vote share a party needs to get the first seat. This provoked protests from smaller parties such as the FDP, which brought an action before the Constitutional Court of the state. This article examines the characteristics of the Rock method, which is still largely unknown in terms of its effects. Firstly, its “natural” lower and upper thresholds are determined, which correspond to the share of votes from which a party can or must (theoretically) obtain its first seat. Secondly, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the share of votes at which the probability of winning the first seat is 50%. The simulation shows that parties must be mathematically entitled to an average of approximately 0.88 seats in order to obtain at least one seat. This means that the blocking effect of the Rock method comes very close to the one-seat threshold that was declared unconstitutional in 2008. Contrary to what Rock claims, his procedure favors larger parties in the distribution of seats at the expense of smaller parties, even beyond the higher entry hurdle. In this respect, it lags only marginally behind the effects of the D’Hondt method.