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Purpose <p>There is a paucity of literature assessing the adequacy of the general internal medicine (GIM) physician workforce in the United States (US). This study analyzed predictions from the US federal government for the supply, demand, and adequacy of GIM physicians across the US.</p> Methods <p>This was a cross-sectional study of GIM physicians utilizing data from the Health Resources and Services Administration’s Health Workforce Simulation Model from 2025 to 2037. Supply was defined as the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians in the GIM workforce while demand was defined as the number of FTE physicians needed in the GIM workforce. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply over demand. Temporal trends were analyzed with linear regression.</p> Results <p>From 2025 to 2037, growth in the demand for GIM physicians (106,320 to 120,0460, 13.3% increase, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001) exceeded the supply of GIM physicians (88,490 to 91,570, 3.5% increase, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). Physician adequacy in GIM was projected to decrease over the study period (83.2% to 76.0%, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). By 2037, GIM physician adequacy was lowest in nonmetropolitan areas compared to metropolitan areas (41.8% vs 79.8%, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001) and lowest in the Midwest compared to the Northeast (66.5% vs 99.9%, <i>P</i> &lt; 0.001). The states with the lowest projected GIM physician adequacy were Utah (39.8%), Oklahoma (39.9%), and Wyoming (46.2%). GIM ranked 17 out of 20 medical specialties for physician workforce adequacy in 2037.</p> Conclusions <p>Physician adequacy in GIM is projected to decrease significantly to 2037 with anticipated shortages expected in the Midwest, nonmetropolitan areas, and certain identified states.</p>

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Understanding the Supply, Demand, and Adequacy of the General Internal Medicine Physician Workforce in the United States: Projections to 2037

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月18日

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  • Jason Silvestre,
  • Robert J. Ferdon ,
  • Sydney Seeger,
  • Charles A. Reitman

摘要

Purpose

There is a paucity of literature assessing the adequacy of the general internal medicine (GIM) physician workforce in the United States (US). This study analyzed predictions from the US federal government for the supply, demand, and adequacy of GIM physicians across the US.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study of GIM physicians utilizing data from the Health Resources and Services Administration’s Health Workforce Simulation Model from 2025 to 2037. Supply was defined as the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians in the GIM workforce while demand was defined as the number of FTE physicians needed in the GIM workforce. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply over demand. Temporal trends were analyzed with linear regression.

Results

From 2025 to 2037, growth in the demand for GIM physicians (106,320 to 120,0460, 13.3% increase, P < 0.001) exceeded the supply of GIM physicians (88,490 to 91,570, 3.5% increase, P < 0.001). Physician adequacy in GIM was projected to decrease over the study period (83.2% to 76.0%, P < 0.001). By 2037, GIM physician adequacy was lowest in nonmetropolitan areas compared to metropolitan areas (41.8% vs 79.8%, P < 0.001) and lowest in the Midwest compared to the Northeast (66.5% vs 99.9%, P < 0.001). The states with the lowest projected GIM physician adequacy were Utah (39.8%), Oklahoma (39.9%), and Wyoming (46.2%). GIM ranked 17 out of 20 medical specialties for physician workforce adequacy in 2037.

Conclusions

Physician adequacy in GIM is projected to decrease significantly to 2037 with anticipated shortages expected in the Midwest, nonmetropolitan areas, and certain identified states.