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<p>The present research evaluates the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources in the Mio-Pliocene aquifer of the Sidi Okba region (Algeria) under evolving climatic conditions. A numerical groundwater flow model was developed using the MODFLOW code, calibrated under steady-state (2006) and transient-state (2006–2010) conditions, and subsequently validated (2011–2012). The model reproduced observed heads with good agreement (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.993; RMSE = 1.42), within the limits of available monitoring data. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the aquifer’s hydraulic response is predominantly influenced by hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and pumping rates. Future projections for 2020–2050 period were conducted under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, incorporating climate-induced recharge variability while maintaining constant pumping rates to isolate the hydraulic impact of recharge from anthropogenic stresses. The simulations suggest limited sensitivity of drawdown to projected recharge variability under the assumed pumping conditions, predicting a stable drawdown of approximately 6.9&#xa0;m. The optimization results indicate a potential increase in simulated pumping capacity under the imposed constraints, although these outcomes remain contingent on model assumptions and data availability. An optimization framework using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was implemented to maximize groundwater withdrawal while satisfying irrigation demands under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Operational constraints were defined for 424 wells, limiting the maximum allowable drawdown to 25% of the available water column above the screen top. The optimization results revealed a potential increase in the total pumping rate from 144.9 million m<sup>3</sup>/year to 344.5 million m<sup>3</sup>/year, representing a 137% enhancement in water supply capacity. Under this optimized regime, the maximum cumulative drawdown reached 7.2&#xa0;m, reflecting a marginal 4.6% increase in drawdown compared to the pre-optimization stage. These findings suggest that strategic abstraction management could potentially accommodate increasing water requirements. However, these outcomes should be interpreted as model-based scenarios rather than definitive indicators, given the inherent uncertainties in storage parameters and the limited observation well network.</p>

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Assessment of sustainable groundwater management under climate change scenarios using an integrated MODFLOW-NSGA-II framework: a case study of Sidi Okba Region, Algeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月28日

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  • Amina Maansri,
  • Abdelhamid Messameh,
  • Mohamed R. Torkomany

摘要

The present research evaluates the long-term sustainability of groundwater resources in the Mio-Pliocene aquifer of the Sidi Okba region (Algeria) under evolving climatic conditions. A numerical groundwater flow model was developed using the MODFLOW code, calibrated under steady-state (2006) and transient-state (2006–2010) conditions, and subsequently validated (2011–2012). The model reproduced observed heads with good agreement (R2 = 0.993; RMSE = 1.42), within the limits of available monitoring data. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the aquifer’s hydraulic response is predominantly influenced by hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and pumping rates. Future projections for 2020–2050 period were conducted under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, incorporating climate-induced recharge variability while maintaining constant pumping rates to isolate the hydraulic impact of recharge from anthropogenic stresses. The simulations suggest limited sensitivity of drawdown to projected recharge variability under the assumed pumping conditions, predicting a stable drawdown of approximately 6.9 m. The optimization results indicate a potential increase in simulated pumping capacity under the imposed constraints, although these outcomes remain contingent on model assumptions and data availability. An optimization framework using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) was implemented to maximize groundwater withdrawal while satisfying irrigation demands under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Operational constraints were defined for 424 wells, limiting the maximum allowable drawdown to 25% of the available water column above the screen top. The optimization results revealed a potential increase in the total pumping rate from 144.9 million m3/year to 344.5 million m3/year, representing a 137% enhancement in water supply capacity. Under this optimized regime, the maximum cumulative drawdown reached 7.2 m, reflecting a marginal 4.6% increase in drawdown compared to the pre-optimization stage. These findings suggest that strategic abstraction management could potentially accommodate increasing water requirements. However, these outcomes should be interpreted as model-based scenarios rather than definitive indicators, given the inherent uncertainties in storage parameters and the limited observation well network.