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<p>Drought is one of the most critical climate-related hazards affecting North Africa, particularly Morocco, where water resources are under increasing pressure from both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought and vegetation response across three contrasting climatic zones in Morocco, namely Tensift-Haouz, Moulouya-Oriental, and Moyen Atlas, over the period 2010–2024. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at the twelve-month scale (SPEI-12) was used to characterize drought conditions, while the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS MOD13A3 monthly imagery was employed to assess vegetation response. Both datasets were extracted and processed using Google Earth Engine, and statistical analyses were conducted in Python. Results indicate persistent drought conditions across all three zones throughout the study period. Moulouya-Oriental experienced the most severe cumulative water deficit (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.95), with monthly values frequently falling below the moderate drought threshold (SPEI &lt;  − 1.0) and extreme drought episodes (SPEI &lt;  − 2.0) recorded during 2019–2022, followed by Moyen Atlas (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.81) and Tensift-Haouz (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.67). The frequency of months classified as moderate to extreme drought (SPEI ≤  − 1.0) exceeded 40% across all zones, with Moulouya-Oriental recording the highest frequency at over 50%, indicating that drought was not an episodic phenomenon but rather the predominant hydroclimatic state throughout the observation period. NDVI analysis revealed a clear spatial gradient consistent with the hydroclimatic conditions of each zone, with Moyen Atlas recording the highest mean vegetation density (mean NDVI = 0.233) and Moulouya-Oriental the lowest (mean NDVI = 0.163). Statistically significant positive correlations between SPEI-12 and NDVI were identified across all three zones (<i>r</i> = 0.256–0.503, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), confirming the strong sensitivity of vegetation dynamics to drought variability in these water-limited environments. These findings provide a scientifically robust and reproducible framework for drought monitoring and sustainable land management in Morocco under ongoing climate change.</p>

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Assessment of drought dynamics and vegetation response across Moroccan climatic zones using SPEI-12 and MODIS NDVI (2010–2024): trends, frequencies, and correlations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月27日

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  • Mohammed Mourjane

摘要

Drought is one of the most critical climate-related hazards affecting North Africa, particularly Morocco, where water resources are under increasing pressure from both climatic and anthropogenic drivers. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought and vegetation response across three contrasting climatic zones in Morocco, namely Tensift-Haouz, Moulouya-Oriental, and Moyen Atlas, over the period 2010–2024. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at the twelve-month scale (SPEI-12) was used to characterize drought conditions, while the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS MOD13A3 monthly imagery was employed to assess vegetation response. Both datasets were extracted and processed using Google Earth Engine, and statistical analyses were conducted in Python. Results indicate persistent drought conditions across all three zones throughout the study period. Moulouya-Oriental experienced the most severe cumulative water deficit (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.95), with monthly values frequently falling below the moderate drought threshold (SPEI <  − 1.0) and extreme drought episodes (SPEI <  − 2.0) recorded during 2019–2022, followed by Moyen Atlas (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.81) and Tensift-Haouz (mean SPEI-12 =  − 0.67). The frequency of months classified as moderate to extreme drought (SPEI ≤  − 1.0) exceeded 40% across all zones, with Moulouya-Oriental recording the highest frequency at over 50%, indicating that drought was not an episodic phenomenon but rather the predominant hydroclimatic state throughout the observation period. NDVI analysis revealed a clear spatial gradient consistent with the hydroclimatic conditions of each zone, with Moyen Atlas recording the highest mean vegetation density (mean NDVI = 0.233) and Moulouya-Oriental the lowest (mean NDVI = 0.163). Statistically significant positive correlations between SPEI-12 and NDVI were identified across all three zones (r = 0.256–0.503, p < 0.001), confirming the strong sensitivity of vegetation dynamics to drought variability in these water-limited environments. These findings provide a scientifically robust and reproducible framework for drought monitoring and sustainable land management in Morocco under ongoing climate change.