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<p>Rainfall patterns in India are shifting. Rainfall is increasing in the traditionally low rainfall Rajasthan desert areas, while it is decreasing in high rainfall regions such as Central-eastern and northeastern India. Rainfall in the Rajasthan desert area increased by approximately 50–75% from 2003 to 2023, whereas it decreased by 10–25% in Northeast India. Fluctuations in rainfall are closely related to Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). AOD decreased by about 40% in western India, especially in the Rajasthan desert area, while they increased by about 10–20% in Central-eastern India from 2003 to 2023. The decrease in AOD in the Rajasthan desert is a matter of debate; however, varying aerosol concentrations alter the moisture contribution to aerosols, which is significantly connected with changes in cloud fraction in India. Cloud fraction is decreasing in India by 10–15%, except in the Rajasthan desert area, where it increased by 15–20%. The findings reveal that aerosols play a significant role in rainfall variation in India by changing cloud microphysics. This impact is negligible in peninsular regions, possibly due to marine aerosols having hygroscopicity.</p>

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Rainfall variation in Indian regions during the past 21 years and its relationship with atmospheric aerosol

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月4日

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  • Deen Mani Lal,
  • Nandivada Umakanth,
  • Rupraj Biswasharma,
  • Manoj Arjun Domkawale

摘要

Rainfall patterns in India are shifting. Rainfall is increasing in the traditionally low rainfall Rajasthan desert areas, while it is decreasing in high rainfall regions such as Central-eastern and northeastern India. Rainfall in the Rajasthan desert area increased by approximately 50–75% from 2003 to 2023, whereas it decreased by 10–25% in Northeast India. Fluctuations in rainfall are closely related to Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). AOD decreased by about 40% in western India, especially in the Rajasthan desert area, while they increased by about 10–20% in Central-eastern India from 2003 to 2023. The decrease in AOD in the Rajasthan desert is a matter of debate; however, varying aerosol concentrations alter the moisture contribution to aerosols, which is significantly connected with changes in cloud fraction in India. Cloud fraction is decreasing in India by 10–15%, except in the Rajasthan desert area, where it increased by 15–20%. The findings reveal that aerosols play a significant role in rainfall variation in India by changing cloud microphysics. This impact is negligible in peninsular regions, possibly due to marine aerosols having hygroscopicity.