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<p>Drought assessment in mountainous, hydroclimatically complex basins remains challenging due to limitations in single-index evaluations that commonly misrepresent plant-available moisture under variable atmospheric demand. The Aras–Kura Basin in Türkiye exemplifies this complexity, with seasonal dynamics of precipitation, snowfall, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) influencing agricultural and ecological drought risks. Existing studies predominantly rely on indices like the De Martonne Aridity Index (DMAI), which neglect PET, leading to oversimplified moisture classifications. This research addresses critical gaps by systematically comparing DMAI and the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI), the latter incorporating PET, using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data spanning 1981–2020. Findings reveal significant discrepancies between DMAI and TMI, with DMAI frequently classifying nearly 35% of the basin as “humid” during summer while TMI identifies those areas as “arid” or “semiarid” due to elevated PET pressures. Seasonal analysis uncovers strong spring–summer humidity correlations (<i>r</i> &gt; 0.3, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in sub-basins (Tekman and Köprüköy), where spring precipitation compensates for winter drought. However, rapid snowmelt in April–May combined with spring PET increases rapidly depletes soil moisture, causing ephemeral drought episodes reflected in TMI but masked by DMAI. This dual-index framework improves detection of “hidden drought” conditions, supporting effective agricultural planning and adaptive water allocation. The novelty lies in fine-scale, temporal–spatial integration of DMAI and TMI, revealing limitations of traditional indices and guiding nuanced drought policy for the present study site. This work establishes a foundation for coupling with crop models, remote sensing, and socioeconomic assessments in the Aras–Kura Basin and comparable hydroclimatic regions worldwide.</p>

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Assessing the role of PET in De Martonne and Thornthwaite moisture-based drought metrics in Aras Basin, Türkiye

  • 期刊论文

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Mehmet Ali Çelik,
  • Aman Srivastava,
  • Ahmed Elbeltagi

摘要

Drought assessment in mountainous, hydroclimatically complex basins remains challenging due to limitations in single-index evaluations that commonly misrepresent plant-available moisture under variable atmospheric demand. The Aras–Kura Basin in Türkiye exemplifies this complexity, with seasonal dynamics of precipitation, snowfall, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) influencing agricultural and ecological drought risks. Existing studies predominantly rely on indices like the De Martonne Aridity Index (DMAI), which neglect PET, leading to oversimplified moisture classifications. This research addresses critical gaps by systematically comparing DMAI and the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI), the latter incorporating PET, using high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data spanning 1981–2020. Findings reveal significant discrepancies between DMAI and TMI, with DMAI frequently classifying nearly 35% of the basin as “humid” during summer while TMI identifies those areas as “arid” or “semiarid” due to elevated PET pressures. Seasonal analysis uncovers strong spring–summer humidity correlations (r > 0.3, p < 0.05) in sub-basins (Tekman and Köprüköy), where spring precipitation compensates for winter drought. However, rapid snowmelt in April–May combined with spring PET increases rapidly depletes soil moisture, causing ephemeral drought episodes reflected in TMI but masked by DMAI. This dual-index framework improves detection of “hidden drought” conditions, supporting effective agricultural planning and adaptive water allocation. The novelty lies in fine-scale, temporal–spatial integration of DMAI and TMI, revealing limitations of traditional indices and guiding nuanced drought policy for the present study site. This work establishes a foundation for coupling with crop models, remote sensing, and socioeconomic assessments in the Aras–Kura Basin and comparable hydroclimatic regions worldwide.