Evolving climate extremes and regional risk in India under future scenarios: a district-level assessment of precipitation and temperature extremes (2015–2100)
摘要
Global warming is accelerating the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the world, and India is no exception. Heatwaves, heavy rainfall, prolonged droughts, and cold spells are becoming increasingly disruptive, threatening the country's socio-economic stability and environmental sustainability. Understanding how these extremes will evolve in the future and which regions and communities face the greatest risk is therefore critically important for effective adaptation planning. This study examines the projected evolution of climate extremes across India from 2015 to 2100 under two emission scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, using an ensemble of 12 CMIP6 models and 18 standardized ETCCDI climate extreme indices. GCM outputs were bias-corrected using Quantile Delta Mapping and validated against IMD and IMDAA observations over the historical period (1979–2014), confirming the reliability of the corrected datasets for extreme index computation. Trends and breakpoints are analysed across three future periods, near (2015–2040), mid (2041–2070), and far future (2071–2100), using the modified Mann–Kendall test and Bayesian changepoint detection. To move beyond hazard alone, projected extreme indices are combined with district-level socio-economic vulnerability data to construct four risk indices capturing wet, dry, hot, and cold dimensions of climate risk. The results showed a clear picture of an intensifying climate, particularly under the high-emission scenario. Central and western India emerge as hotspots for drought and heat stress, while north-eastern India and the Western Ghats face growing risks from extreme rainfall, and Himalayan and north-eastern districts persistently experience the highest cold hazards. These findings point to the urgent need for region-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies that reflect the diverse and heterogeneous nature of climate risk across India.