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<p>The transmission of numerous zoonotic diseases hinges on the tripartite interactions among humans, animals and the environment. The One Health paradigm underscores the inextricable interconnection between human health, animal health and ecosystem health. This study innovatively develops a multi-host zoonotic disease transmission model incorporating both pathogen compartment and temperature effects. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we prove the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions and systematically investigate the existence conditions and global asymptotic stability characteristics of equilibrium points. For intervention strategies, we establish an optimal control framework, demonstrating not only the existence of optimal solutions but also deriving explicit analytical expressions. Numerical simulations validate the model’s dynamic characteristics and enable quantitative evaluation of different interventions. Empirical analysis using China’s brucellosis surveillance data reveal: there is a potential correlation between temperature changes and the cases number and the model achieves a goodness-of-fit of 0.98 for cumulative cases, strongly validating its reliability; temperature influence quantification showed each <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(10^\circ \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msup> <mn>10</mn> <mo>∘</mo> </msup> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>C increase in mean annual temperature reduced peak incidence by 3888 cases (17.91%) and 20-year cumulative cases by 49556 (20.37%). Multi-strategy comparative studies identified pharmaceutical intervention with 40% enhanced treatment efficacy as the optimal strategy, providing scientific evidence for zoonotic disease control.</p>

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Dynamical Behavior and Control Optimization of a Zoonotic Epidemic Model Incorporating Temperature Effects: Analysis and Simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月18日

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  • Kedeng Cheng,
  • Yuanhua Qiao

摘要

The transmission of numerous zoonotic diseases hinges on the tripartite interactions among humans, animals and the environment. The One Health paradigm underscores the inextricable interconnection between human health, animal health and ecosystem health. This study innovatively develops a multi-host zoonotic disease transmission model incorporating both pathogen compartment and temperature effects. Through rigorous mathematical analysis, we prove the non-negativity and boundedness of solutions and systematically investigate the existence conditions and global asymptotic stability characteristics of equilibrium points. For intervention strategies, we establish an optimal control framework, demonstrating not only the existence of optimal solutions but also deriving explicit analytical expressions. Numerical simulations validate the model’s dynamic characteristics and enable quantitative evaluation of different interventions. Empirical analysis using China’s brucellosis surveillance data reveal: there is a potential correlation between temperature changes and the cases number and the model achieves a goodness-of-fit of 0.98 for cumulative cases, strongly validating its reliability; temperature influence quantification showed each \(10^\circ \) 10 ∘ C increase in mean annual temperature reduced peak incidence by 3888 cases (17.91%) and 20-year cumulative cases by 49556 (20.37%). Multi-strategy comparative studies identified pharmaceutical intervention with 40% enhanced treatment efficacy as the optimal strategy, providing scientific evidence for zoonotic disease control.