<p>China’s economic and industrial structure has undergone rapid transformation, which has led to a significant return-migration from cities to villages. These returning migrants are readjusting to rural environments and may be confronted with uncertain family prospects, which reflects ongoing and impending challenges to family well-being. Their families have undergone significant transformations in their resources and living patterns due to their migration. Since returnee households may differ in the priorities they assign to their needs, how family uncertainty is manifested and the causes of the uncertainty remain unknown. Considering changes of livelihoods and relationships among return migrant families, it is necessary to know whether household capital and family burdens exert any influence on family uncertainty. Taking account of environmental constraints in today’s rural China, this study first offers a theoretical framework for analyzing family uncertainty among return migrants. Then we explore sources of the uncertainty regarding family prospects, including marriage, employment, health care, and elderly support, which affect the returning population in rural China. Using a regional survey, a pull-push mechanism for perceived uncertainty regarding family prospects is proposed and studied empirically by multilevel regression analysis. The types of family uncertainty and associated pull-push mechanisms are discussed using latent profile analysis and a multilevel regression mixture model. The results indicate that family capital exerts a pull effect by reducing the overall level of perceived family uncertainty, whereas family burden constitutes a push effect by increasing it. The pull effect is stronger than the push effect, suggesting a positive trend in the well-being of return-migrant households. Perceptions of uncertainty concerning family prospects cluster into three groups: one involving marriage uncertainty, a second related to employment uncertainty, and a third involving uncertainty about security. Among these, family capital contributes to marriage uncertainty, whereas family burdens are more likely to generate concerns regarding security and unemployment. This study provides empirical evidence concerning trends in family development amid China’s rural return migration, and offers a basis for identifying significant factors that affect well-being of return migrants’ families.</p>