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<p>Controlling key drivers is essential to align the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) for sustainable development. However, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity are often overlooked in studying ES mismatch. Hence, this paper evaluates the supply-demand balance of bundled ecosystem services in eastern China, revealing the spatial characteristics of the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services. We used the InVEST model to assess ecosystem services, applied a Gaussian mixture model to identify distinct ES supply-demand bundles, and constructed a synergy network among bundles via weighted network analysis. We then employed redundancy analysis and generalized additive models to examine drivers. The main findings of this study are as follows: Ecosystem service demand increased by approximately 18.25%, showing a clear trend toward supply-demand mismatch. The results showed strong synergies among different supply-demand clusters, and the supply-demand relationships of the same ecosystem service were not entirely consistent across clusters. The NDVI emerged as the most influential factor affecting ES supply-demand relationships (exceeding 10%), but social factors had a greater average effect. This study emphasizes the importance of the spatial relationship and driving factors of the supply-demand states of services mismatch in formulating effective spatial strategies.</p>

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Identifying the spatial relationships of ecosystem service supply-demand and their driving factors in eastern China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Xufang Zhang,
  • Rongqing Han,
  • Yunhe Yin

摘要

Controlling key drivers is essential to align the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) for sustainable development. However, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearity are often overlooked in studying ES mismatch. Hence, this paper evaluates the supply-demand balance of bundled ecosystem services in eastern China, revealing the spatial characteristics of the supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services. We used the InVEST model to assess ecosystem services, applied a Gaussian mixture model to identify distinct ES supply-demand bundles, and constructed a synergy network among bundles via weighted network analysis. We then employed redundancy analysis and generalized additive models to examine drivers. The main findings of this study are as follows: Ecosystem service demand increased by approximately 18.25%, showing a clear trend toward supply-demand mismatch. The results showed strong synergies among different supply-demand clusters, and the supply-demand relationships of the same ecosystem service were not entirely consistent across clusters. The NDVI emerged as the most influential factor affecting ES supply-demand relationships (exceeding 10%), but social factors had a greater average effect. This study emphasizes the importance of the spatial relationship and driving factors of the supply-demand states of services mismatch in formulating effective spatial strategies.