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<p>Existing studies on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) mainly focused on institutional features, macro-economic impacts, and trade-network structures, while its geographic attributes and their implications remain underexplored. Taking the RCEP as a case, this paper examines how the FTA reshapes China’s trade geography and validates these effects with an enhanced GTAP model, providing an empirical basis for advancing trade-geography theory. Key findings include: (1) RCEP significantly reduces regional trade costs. After full implementation of the agreement, the average tariffs among member countries will decrease to 40.5% of the pre-implementation level, while import and export trade facilitation levels improve by 34.3% and 29.6%, respectively. However, these improvements exhibit marked regional disparities. (2) RCEP asymmetrically promotes China’s foreign trade growth, with stronger import stimulation than export expansion, alongside significant product-specific variations. (3) The agreement reshapes China’s trade geography, driving a 7.66% increase in intra-RCEP trade while reducing extra-RCEP trade by 0.80%. (4) The restructuring of China’s trade patterns under RCEP emerges from the complex interplay of trade creation, diversion, and crowding-out effects. Accordingly, China should further harmonize regional tariff schedules, enhance trade-facilitation mechanisms, strengthen industrial competitiveness and expand multilateral partnerships.</p>

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Reshaping effects of RCEP on China’s foreign trade pattern

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月13日

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  • Zhouying Song,
  • Jingya Xu,
  • Lei Tao

摘要

Existing studies on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) mainly focused on institutional features, macro-economic impacts, and trade-network structures, while its geographic attributes and their implications remain underexplored. Taking the RCEP as a case, this paper examines how the FTA reshapes China’s trade geography and validates these effects with an enhanced GTAP model, providing an empirical basis for advancing trade-geography theory. Key findings include: (1) RCEP significantly reduces regional trade costs. After full implementation of the agreement, the average tariffs among member countries will decrease to 40.5% of the pre-implementation level, while import and export trade facilitation levels improve by 34.3% and 29.6%, respectively. However, these improvements exhibit marked regional disparities. (2) RCEP asymmetrically promotes China’s foreign trade growth, with stronger import stimulation than export expansion, alongside significant product-specific variations. (3) The agreement reshapes China’s trade geography, driving a 7.66% increase in intra-RCEP trade while reducing extra-RCEP trade by 0.80%. (4) The restructuring of China’s trade patterns under RCEP emerges from the complex interplay of trade creation, diversion, and crowding-out effects. Accordingly, China should further harmonize regional tariff schedules, enhance trade-facilitation mechanisms, strengthen industrial competitiveness and expand multilateral partnerships.