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<p>The Selenge River Basin (SRB) in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading. The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been documented. This study aims to answer the following questions: Will the typical soums in the SRB become more overgrazed in the future? What optimal strategy should be implemented? Multisource data were integrated and utilized to model the pastoral system of typical soums using a system dynamics approach. Future scenarios under three SSP-RCPs were projected using the model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From upstream to downstream, rational scenarios for pastoral system transferred from SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP2-RCP4.5, which reflect improved productivity at the expense of ecosystem stability. (2) Compared with that during the historical period of 2000–2020, the projected carrying capacity of the soums decreases by 15.2%–37.3%, whereas the number of livestock continues to increase. Consequently, the stocking rate is expected to increase from 0.32–1.16 during 2000–2020 to 1.26–2.02 during 2021–2050, indicating that rangeland will become more overloaded. (3) A livestock reduction strategy based on future livestock stock and grassland carrying capacity scenarios was proposed to maintain a dynamic forage–livestock equilibrium. It is suggested that reducing livestock is a practical option for harmonizing grassland conservation with livestock husbandry development.</p>

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Will the typical soums in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia become more overgrazed in the future?

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Zengrang Xu,
  • Juanle Wang,
  • Davaadorj Davaasuren,
  • Altansukh Ochir

摘要

The Selenge River Basin (SRB) in Mongolia has faced ecosystem degradation because of climate change and overloading. The dynamics of the pastoral system and the extent of overload under future scenarios have not been documented. This study aims to answer the following questions: Will the typical soums in the SRB become more overgrazed in the future? What optimal strategy should be implemented? Multisource data were integrated and utilized to model the pastoral system of typical soums using a system dynamics approach. Future scenarios under three SSP-RCPs were projected using the model. The conclusions are as follows: (1) From upstream to downstream, rational scenarios for pastoral system transferred from SSP1-RCP2.6 to SSP2-RCP4.5, which reflect improved productivity at the expense of ecosystem stability. (2) Compared with that during the historical period of 2000–2020, the projected carrying capacity of the soums decreases by 15.2%–37.3%, whereas the number of livestock continues to increase. Consequently, the stocking rate is expected to increase from 0.32–1.16 during 2000–2020 to 1.26–2.02 during 2021–2050, indicating that rangeland will become more overloaded. (3) A livestock reduction strategy based on future livestock stock and grassland carrying capacity scenarios was proposed to maintain a dynamic forage–livestock equilibrium. It is suggested that reducing livestock is a practical option for harmonizing grassland conservation with livestock husbandry development.